Carrick Has the Contract, but Atletico and Leeds Will Test His Answers

Winning is the easy part of management; it is the second month that tells you who is in charge. Manchester United have failed to win five of their last six games in all competitions, the latest a 1-1 draw at home to ten-man Tottenham, and Paul Merson, writing in his Sky Sports column, believes Michael Carrick is in trouble as a result. Atletico Madrid away in the Champions League comes first, then Leeds United away. Merson's case is less about the fixtures than about what he has not yet seen from the head coach: a way out.

A week Merson could not have designed worse

Merson calls it a "nightmare week" and says he cannot think of two worse games. He also says he does not think United will win either. That is his opinion, and it should be read as one.

His reasoning on Atletico is simple. They are hard to beat, he says, and do not concede many goals. Leeds are a different sort of problem. He describes the fixture as a big rivalry and one of Leeds' biggest games, and says a Leeds supporter would now be shocked if United won at Elland Road. Sky's introduction to the column adds the context that Leeds saw their unbeaten start ended by champions Arsenal on Saturday.

Merson treats that reversal as a symptom. How many times, he asks, has the opposite been said about Leeds against United? For him, the shift "tells you everything you need to know" about the club. That is a sweeping verdict, and the evidence for it here is one column's worth of opinion rather than a body of results.

The Tottenham draw as a diagnosis

The Tottenham game supplies Merson's sharpest contrast. He says he saw signs from Spurs that things can improve. At United, he says, he has seen none. His account of the match is that Tottenham dominated at Old Trafford, went 1-0 down and played with ten men, yet still found an equaliser through Dominic Solanke that he thinks they deserved.

That is a hard thing to say about a team that was, on the scoreboard, ahead. The column gives no further detail on how United came to lead, and it would be wrong to fill that gap. What it does establish is Merson's view that a side with a numerical disadvantage controlled the game at United's ground. If that reading is right, the draw is not an escape but an indictment.

There is a counterpoint on the boos. Gary Neville suggested they were not aimed at Carrick, but believes United fans will begin to turn if results and performances do not improve. That is a warning with a condition attached, which is a long way from a verdict.

What Merson wanted to see

The centre of the column is a long-held reservation. Merson says he always wanted to see how Carrick would react when his team went three or four games without a win. When United were playing well last season and he got them into the Champions League, Merson recalls, everyone was saying to give him the job.

Analysis follows from that. A manager who is winning is not being asked to solve anything, so the present run is the first real sample of how Carrick responds when things stop going right. Merson's answer is that it "doesn't seem like he is coming up with the ideas to get out of it". He goes further, saying that if Carrick had looked like this last season, he would not have been given the job permanently. But now, he notes, Carrick has the contract.

The final point is the most interesting one, because it separates two questions. Whether Carrick deserved the post is settled in the sense that he holds it. Whether he can deal with a bad spell is open, and Merson thinks he is in trouble over the next two games.

Emery, Howe, Conte: the replacement conversation

Merson says he hopes Carrick does not get the sack, but he repeats that he is in trouble. He then reaches for names. United, he argues, should have gone for Unai Emery, or whatever it took to land someone with major experience who "has been around the block". It is a hard job, he says.

If a change did come, Merson suggests Eddie Howe is probably the man United would go for, adding that he is the only one about. Antonio Conte could steady the ship, he says, but he does not know whether Conte wants to play entertaining football and set the world alight. Behind all of it sits an admission: he does not know what the owners want.

That admission matters. A list of possible successors is a thought experiment, not a report that anyone is being considered, and the column does not claim otherwise. It does show how quickly a commentator's mind goes to alternatives once the results turn.

Spurs have their own problem

The same column is just as pointed about Tottenham. Merson says they needed a proper centre forward in the summer. Solanke is "better than alright", he says, but not yet an actual goalscorer, and he does not expect a goal when Solanke is through one-on-one. He adds that Omar Marmoush will provide the occasional worldie rather than goals, and that he cannot believe Spurs did not pursue Nicolas Jackson.

The sting is that Merson says Spurs have played well only for 20 to 25 minutes in matches he has seen this season. They need to turn that into 90. Sky's summary notes that Spurs are still without a league win, and Merson suggests a trip to Coventry on Monday Night Football could be the result that kick-starts their season.

For United, the Tottenham comparison cuts both ways. A side that cannot score still took a point at Old Trafford, and that is the uncomfortable fact in Merson's argument.

What to watch on the touchline

The dates are firm. United play Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night, then travel to Leeds on Sunday 18 October, with a 2:00pm kick-off. Nothing in Merson's column suggests the club has set any deadline for Carrick, and nothing should be inferred about his position from it.

The better test is behavioural. If United look the same in Madrid as they did against Tottenham, Merson's central charge, that no ideas are coming, gains weight. If they do not, a poor fixture list will have exposed less than he fears. Either way, the question he has posed is a fair one: it was never whether Carrick could win when everything worked.

Research: This article uses the archived evidence supplied for this story. Story inspiration: Sky Sports' original report.