The Sports Guru
Everton v Chelsea12:30
Everton
Everton are the unbeaten side the table barely mentions: two wins, four draws, ten points, fifth. They have taken 95, joint-fourth in the division, put 30 on target and faced 78, and the expected goals read nine for and 8.26 against. The eight goals scored are one short of the chances; the five conceded are 3.26 fewer than the chances against them were worth, the third-largest cushion in the league, and that is the figure most likely to give. At home they have won twice and drawn once, 55 shots to 38 and five goals to two. Last Sunday's draw at Hull was a game in which they had 15 shots to nine and 65.2 per cent of the ball and still came away with two goals to two. All three away games have been drawn, 1-1 at Bournemouth, 0-0 at Tottenham and 2-2 at Hull, so three of the four draws are on the road. Last season's thirteenth place and 49 points came with a home record worse than the away one, 23 points from 19 games against 26, and this season's two wins and a draw at home are the reverse of that. Chelsea beat them 2-0 in December, and Everton won the return 3-0 in March on ten shots to 12, nine of them on target to four: fewer shots, and the side that tested the goalkeeper.
Chelsea
Chelsea have scored 15 goals from 7.87 expected goals, a surplus of 7.13, the largest in the division, with Brighton next on 5.11. Five of the 15 arrived in one afternoon, the 5-1 over Bournemouth, from ten shots and 1.10 expected goals. The other half of the ledger runs the other way: 13 conceded, level with Bournemouth and Newcastle for the most, from 36 shots on target faced, which is more than anyone, and 10.21 expected goals against, so a goal difference of plus two sits beside an expected-goal difference of minus 2.34. Three wins, a draw and two defeats make ten points and sixth place. Away from home it is plainer: one win and two defeats, four goals scored and seven conceded, 13 shots on target to 21 faced, 2.94 expected goals for and 6.05 against. The defeats were 2-1 at Arsenal and 3-0 at Brentford, and the win was 3-2 at Fulham. Last season's tenth place and 52 points split into 26 at home and 26 away, seven wins, five draws and seven defeats in each half, which leaves nobody to blame the venue on. A surplus of seven goals is a direction and not a date.
The Stat Man's call: Everton, narrowly. The visitors arrive carrying a finishing surplus of seven goals, the most shots on target faced in the division and 6.05 expected goals conceded on the road, against an unbeaten side whose own cushion at the back is the part most likely to give way. Four draws from six keep a draw close, and the figures lean, they do not insist.
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