Belgian GP: Kimi Antonelli expects 'not straightforward' Max Verstappen challenge in Spa-Francorchamps race start duel

Pole position at Spa-Francorchamps has a habit of becoming someone else's problem by the time the cars reach Turn Five. Kimi Antonelli knows this better than most heading into Sunday's Belgian Grand Prix, and he said as much himself after claiming a commanding pole on Saturday: starting alongside Max Verstappen, he admitted, is "not going to be straightforward." The line is worth taking at face value. None of the last four polesitters at Spa have gone on to win the race, and the section of track directly ahead of Antonelli's Mercedes is precisely where that history keeps repeating.

A pole that says more about Saturday than Sunday

Antonelli's lap was one of his most complete of the season. It was his sixth pole in ten races, delivered from a driver who was also fastest across the final two practice sessions, and it came with real separation: three tenths of a second over Verstappen's Red Bull, and half a second over Mercedes team-mate George Russell, who moved up to third after Lando Norris took an engine penalty. On raw pace, nobody in the field looked close to Antonelli this weekend.

But raw pace and race results are different questions at this circuit, and Antonelli was careful not to conflate them. "It's going to be important to get a good start and then be ahead into Turn Five," he said - a specific, functional target rather than a victory lap in advance.

The Turn Five problem

The geometry of Spa explains the caution. The run from the front row to the first corner, La Source, is short. What follows is not: a 1.25-mile, largely flat-out uphill charge through Eau Rouge and Raidillon and down the Kemmel Straight before the next real braking zone at Les Combes - Turn Five. That length gives any car sitting in the lead driver's slipstream a top-speed advantage precisely where it counts, and a genuine chance to complete a pass on the run into the chicane.

The pattern has held for three years running, with the race lead changing hands early at that same point of the track each time. In 2023, Sergio Perez passed poleman Charles Leclerc on the opening lap. In 2024, Leclerc - on pole again - was overtaken by Lewis Hamilton by lap three. Last season, Oscar Piastri went on to win after passing McLaren team-mate Norris on the first racing lap in wet conditions. Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff summed up the trade-off after qualifying: "On pole here is great for Saturday but I'm not sure I'd want to be on pole going through Eau Rouge for the first time." His rivals, he added, are "going to be breathing up [Antonelli's] neck."

Why even Verstappen isn't backing himself

What complicates Spa's usual script is that Verstappen, starting on the front row for only the third time this season, doesn't sound like a driver expecting to win a straight fight even if he does get past at Turn Five. Asked what might happen if he took the lead on the opening lap, the three-time Belgian GP winner was blunt: "He would just pass me on the straights." Verstappen also pointed out that his own qualifying gap flattered him - he benefited from a tow off team-mate Isack Hadjar in Q3, and by his own reckoning that leaves Red Bull roughly six tenths off Mercedes' true pace rather than three. His conclusion was equally direct: "It's not a fight in the race."

That assessment arrives after a difficult few weeks for Red Bull, including a Silverstone weekend that ended with Verstappen off the road and beached in the gravel late in the race. Belgium has looked better for the team so far, but Verstappen's own framing of Sunday is less about chasing Antonelli and more about defending position, with Russell and both Ferraris of Leclerc and Hamilton lined up directly behind him on the grid.

Russell's quieter problem

Russell arrives at Spa still working through what he has described as a puzzling straight-line speed deficit relative to his team-mate, a factor that leaves him giving pace away even when his own driving is strong. His hope is to repeat the pattern from Silverstone a fortnight ago, where a difficult qualifying was followed by a recovery to second on the podium. He described the underlying challenge as battling "with one hand behind your back," while saying he still feels confident he can beat Verstappen and the Ferraris head-to-head if the race allows it. A permanent fix, he suggested, is a target for after Belgium, heading into next week's race in Hungary.

The number that matters more than Spa's history

All of this - the Turn Five run, Verstappen's arithmetic, Russell's deficit - sits on top of a quieter story about Antonelli himself. Between March and early June this season, the 19-year-old won five races in a row. Since then he has gone three races without a victory and failed to score points at two of those events, largely down to Mercedes reliability trouble rather than pace. The effect on the championship has been sharp: his lead has been cut from 68 points to 25 across that stretch.

That context reframes what a Spa win would actually mean. It wouldn't just be a return to form after a stretch of misfortune; it would be proof that the run of results between March and June wasn't simply a Mercedes car in a purple patch, but a driver capable of resetting after a wobble. Antonelli sounded aware of the balance required, noting that Friday's long-run pace looked promising while also flagging tyre degradation, "especially the left-hand side," as a concern for 44 laps around Spa. His stated plan was straightforward in principle - "get a good start and then hopefully we'll have a good pace and try off in the distance" - even if the opening laps make that anything but guaranteed.

Spa's recent history says the driver on pole tends to lose the lead within the first few corners of the race. Antonelli's own recent history says a commanding position can slip away over weeks rather than corners. Whichever version plays out on Sunday, the gap between six poles in ten races and a genuinely secure championship lead is the story now worth watching.

Research: This article is based on reporting from Sky Sports.