The Sports Guru
Manchester City's reported guilty verdict answers one question and opens several more, chiefly when any punishment would apply and whether it can be applied fairly. Read on to understand why the calendar may hurt the Premier League as much as the sanction itself, and where rival clubs' compensation claims fit in.
A verdict on Manchester City's 115 charges has reportedly been reached, yet it has resolved almost nothing. City were charged 1,329 days ago, and the hearing began two years and 10 days back. The club insist the "process remains ongoing", the Premier League stays quiet, and this season's table may end up depending on a ruling nobody can put a date on. The penalty itself may be the lesser worry. Its timing is the larger one.
A verdict that leaked, and a silence that did not
Neither the league nor the club made the announcement. BBC Sport's Dale Johnson reports that the Athletic revealed the independent panel had found City guilty of most of the financial rule breaches. BBC Sport then learned that club executives received the verdict during the week, after signing a non-disclosure agreement to view it.
City's statement sidestepped the question of guilt, while signalling that they expect to appeal. They have long maintained their innocence. The Premier League has said nothing in public.
That quiet is unhelpful. Fans, rivals and the league's own members are left to speculate about both the sanction and the schedule. Johnson sees this less as an ending and more as "the end of the beginning". He also believes a points deduction of some kind looks unavoidable, pending City's appeal. That is his assessment rather than any announced decision.
Why the sanction hearing is the real bottleneck
City contest the charges, so the independent panel must hold a separate sanction hearing to set the penalty. BBC Sport understands that hearing may be months off, and the outcome might stay unpublished until any appeal has run its course. Fines, points deductions and even demotion could all be considered.
Chelsea earlier this year took a different route. They reported themselves and admitted guilt, so they were able to reach a sanctioning agreement with the league. Johnson thinks City might try to strike such a deal, though he rates it improbable after so many years of firm denials. A deal could also be awkward for the league, because City would presumably push for a lighter penalty.
What the precedents suggest
My analysis is that the comparisons point towards a heavy penalty. Everton lost six points after a cut from 10 on appeal, then two more in a separate case, both over profit and sustainability rules (PSR). Nottingham Forest lost four. Johnson characterises those as minor breaches. City, by contrast, faced seven PSR charges in the Premier League alone, along with five more tied to Uefa competitions. Beyond those sit allegations of inflated sponsorship income, payments to players and managers, and a failure to cooperate with investigators.
Johnson argues that this wider picture leaves an asterisk over the Premier League from 2009 to 2018. Treat that as his opinion.
Scenario one: a season with no answer
Johnson's first scenario is the most uncomfortable. Suppose no punishment is announced before the season ends. City could then be champions while known to have been found guilty on most counts. Could a sanction be applied retrospectively? Johnson says that is unlikely.
He gives a concrete illustration. Coventry currently sit third from bottom. Imagine they stay there and drop out of the division, when a City penalty landed in time would have kept them up. The unfairness would be obvious. Johnson calls such drift dreadful for the competition, and argues that a sanctioning agreement is the tidiest way out, however hard the league might find it to swallow.
City's next fixture shows what is at stake. Enzo Maresca's team visit Liverpool on 11 October, once the international break ends, with the chance to open up a six-point lead. Johnson wonders whether such a lead now means anything. Nobody can say yet.
Scenario two: a punishment now, an appeal straight after
Normally a points penalty takes effect at once, with any appeal following. It might be big enough to amount to relegation in all but name. Johnson thinks a fine is improbable given how other clubs have been treated, and says it is unclear how the league could strip City of membership partway through a campaign.
The timings are hazy. A club would usually get 14 days to appeal, but with both sides silent, nobody knows if that period has begun or if it starts only once a sanction is issued. The league typically requests a fast-tracked process from the independent arbitration body that handles disciplinary matters. Whether the standard appeal timetable applies directly here remains uncertain.
A slim possibility exists that a penalty would only reach the table once the appeal is done. Johnson expects affected clubs to object loudly in that event, since they would insist on immediate effect.
Scenario three: a quick appeal and a clean finish
The league would love this route, but it demands pace. Last season, West Bromwich Albion's PSR points deduction was announced only on 24 April. They remained in the Championship, yet the decision dragged them into a survival scramble just when they felt secure, and it revived hope among sides near the bottom. Johnson says the league wants to avoid a repeat that runs into the season's second-last month, although he stresses nothing is assured.
City might also succeed. They did so against the two-year Champions League ban Uefa imposed in July 2020. This time, however, the Court of Arbitration for Sport is not available to them. Johnson writes that a City win would be celebrated at the Etihad Stadium but would probably not calm the bitterness.
Scenario four: the bill arrives afterwards
A settled case may still leave business unfinished. Premier League clubs are taking legal advice on seeking compensation from City. One source, formerly a senior executive at two top-flight clubs, expected individual claims to be lodged. A leading lawyer told the BBC that the league might instead coordinate the process. The rules allow clubs to pursue one another legally for compensation.
A recent example exists. In June, Everton were ordered to pay Burnley £35m after breaching PSR across a three-year period. Burnley argued the breach damaged their prospects of staying up, and they sought redress for what relegation cost them. Everton are appealing. Arsenal, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur reportedly protected their right to claim two years ago.
How big could the claims get?
Kieran Maguire, a professor of football finance at the University of Liverpool, told BBC Sport that claimants would regard it as a "denial of an opportunity". He noted the league's handbook makes no mention of a statute of limitations, although City could contest that in law. City collected seven domestic trophies across the period of the alleged offences.
Maguire's example is Champions League qualification. Back then it was worth at least £30m, he said, and by 2018 perhaps £60m or £70m in prize money. Claims might stretch to missing gate receipts and sponsor bonuses, which he described as very unlikely while conceding people are discussing it. He also put player bonuses for qualifying at typically around 25%, a figure that shows how many separate items could end up in any claim.
Johnson adds that potential claimants reach far beyond the runners-up. They could include clubs that narrowly missed the Champions League, failed to qualify for Europe, or went down. Claims might even cover prize money attached to each league position, or commercial income that rivals lost.
The verdict that keeps changing the question
All four scenarios share a flaw: none offers the Premier League a neat conclusion. A fast ruling protects the table but invites a fierce appeal. A slow one respects due process but risks a title settled on incomplete information. A negotiated deal shortens the road, but only if City drop years of denial. My reading is that the league's biggest exposure is the uncertainty rather than the scale of the penalty, since that gives every club reason to go to court.
Johnson sums up the position as an extremely messy one for the league, with no end in sight. The 11 October trip to Liverpool will arrive with the question still unanswered.
Frequently Asked Questions
The Athletic reported that the panel found City guilty of most of the breaches, and BBC Sport was told club executives received the verdict during the week. City's statement avoided the question of guilt and said the process continues, while the Premier League has stayed silent.
A sanction hearing is required, and fines, points deductions and even demotion are all possible. BBC Sport's Dale Johnson believes some form of points deduction now looks inevitable, pending City's appeal.
An appeal is expected. A club would usually have 14 days to lodge one, but it is unclear whether that clock has started or whether it runs from the sanction.
Possibly, but it is far from certain. The sanction hearing could be months away, and the result may stay unpublished until the appeal finishes. Johnson considers a backdated penalty unlikely.
League rules let clubs seek compensation from each other, and clubs are reportedly taking legal advice. It is uncertain whether a statute of limitations applies, and City could challenge that point.
Research: This article uses the archived evidence supplied for this story. Story inspiration: BBC Sport's original report.
