The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Six

Arsenal went to Brighton with the best defensive numbers in the league and came back with three goals conceded from five shots on target, which is the sort of afternoon the ledger files under noise until it happens twice. The season figures still lead the two defensive columns that measure the quality of what is allowed: 14 shots on target faced, the fewest, and 4.02 expected goals against, the lowest by three-quarters of a goal; the 53 shots faced is one more than Forest and level with Manchester United. At home the two games have produced 36 shots to 17 and 3.93 expected goals to 0.59, a three-nil over Coventry and a two-one over Chelsea. The attack is the quieter column, 65 shots and 8.49 expected goals for eight scored, sixth in the league for chance creation. Last season's title came with 27 conceded in 38 and a home record of 15-2-2, and this fixture was the most lopsided on the calendar: five-nil at home in August on 18 shots to 3, four-nil at Elland Road in January on 14 shots to 3. Nine goals, no reply, 32 shots to 6 across the two games. Saturday lunchtime asks whether one bad afternoon at the Amex changed any of that.

Leeds are fifth and unbeaten, and the shape of the five games has not changed since this page last described it: out-shot in three of them, 61 taken against 73 faced, and three conceded, the joint-fewest in the division alongside Everton. The goalless draw with Palace before the break was 13 shots to 12, 17 touches in each box, and five saves from the Leeds goalkeeper to two at the other end, which is the ledger of a point earned rather than taken. The expected goals still argue for the quality of the chances rather than the quantity, 7.62 for and 6.33 against, and the away column, one win and one draw from two trips with 21 shots taken and 32 faced, is already better than the 2-9-8 of last season that produced 15 points, the third-fewest away points in the league. The problem is the opponent. Leeds took three shots in each of last season's two meetings with Arsenal and conceded nine goals across them, and the side that did that finished fourteenth on 47 points. The defence that has conceded three in five is the only column that gives Saturday a different shape.

Aston Villa won at Tottenham before the break and the numbers were the same ones that had lost them three of the previous four: 15 shots to 20, six on target to seven, 19 touches in the Spurs box to 31, 36.1 per cent of the ball and one corner to eleven, with Manzambi, Jackson and Buendia scoring before two late Tottenham goals made it three-two. The season ledger is the thinnest attacking line in the division on every count: 48 shots, the fewest; 12 on target, the fewest; 4.51 expected goals, the lowest. The defence has faced 81 shots and 9.23 expected goals, the second-highest in the league behind Palace, and conceded nine. Villa Park has produced two defeats, one goal scored, 14 shots taken and 29 faced. Last season's fourth place was built there, 12-2-5 with 32 scored, and the 483 shots for and 490 against that came with it was the ledger that said fourth was borrowed. Brentford beat Villa twice last season, one-nil at the Gtech in August with Villa taking 17 shots to 9, and one-nil at Villa Park in February with Villa taking 27 to 6. In both games the side with the shots lost; this season Villa are not even the side with the shots.

Brentford are fourth and unbeaten, and the three-nil over Chelsea on the Friday before the break was the first win since the opening day: Anthony's header, Igor Thiago on the break, Fabio Carvalho late, on 13 shots to 12 and six on target to two, with 40.2 per cent of the ball and 24 box touches to 29. The season ledger is among the better ones in the division: 81 shots taken, fourth-most; 9.79 expected goals, third-most; 6.31 expected goals against, fourth-lowest; four conceded, joint-third-fewest. The home column is where the wins have come, two of them with seven scored and one conceded; the away column is two draws, a goal apiece at Leeds and two-two at Bournemouth, with 30 shots taken and 32 faced. Last season's ninth place had an away record of 6-3-10, the draw-shy half of a side that drew eight at home, and the two wins over Villa were both earned against the run of the shot count. The question for Saturday is whether a side that has not lost can win away, which it did not manage in either of its first two attempts this season.

Chelsea have the most generous defence in the division by the measure that matters most: 32 shots on target faced, four more than anyone else, and twelve conceded, the most in the league. The three-nil at Brentford was the fifth game in a row without a clean sheet and came on 59.8 per cent of the ball, 12 corners to 4 and 29 box touches to 24, which is the pattern of the season in one night: Chelsea had the territory and Brentford had six shots on target to two. The season ledger is exactly level on shots, 72 taken and 72 faced, and negative on quality, 6.77 expected goals for against 8.83 against, the fourth-highest allowed. Ten goals from 6.77 expected is the surplus this page flagged a fortnight ago as the kind the ledger expects to cool; it has not cooled so much as stopped, with no goal at Brentford. Stamford Bridge has been kinder, a four-three over Brighton and a two-two with Hull, six scored and five conceded. Last season's tenth place came with an identical home and away record, 7-5-7 and 7-5-7, and both meetings with Bournemouth were drawn, goalless at the Vitality in December and two-two at Stamford Bridge at the end of it, with Bournemouth taking six shots on target to three in the second.

Bournemouth are seventeenth, winless, and their shot ledger belongs to a side ten places higher: 68 taken, 54 faced, the fourth-fewest in the league, and 26 on target, the joint-fourth-most. The one-nil home defeat by Liverpool before the break, Andoni Iraola's return to the Vitality, was nine shots to 12 and 27 box touches to 19, Alexander Isak scoring just before the hour. Six goals from 6.69 expected goals is close to par; eight conceded from 7.06 against is slightly worse than it. Marco Rose is now five league games into the job without a win, three draws and two defeats, and last season's identity, 18 draws in 38 and a home record with two defeats all season, has travelled with him into the away column, one draw and one defeat with 22 shots taken and 21 faced. The two meetings with Chelsea last season were both drawn, and in both Bournemouth had at least as many shots on target as Chelsea. The side that has not won is, on the ledger, the steadier of these two.

Ipswich have played five and drawn none, two wins by a single goal and three defeats, and the last of those was the most respectable: one-nil at Everton to Thierno Barry's eleventh-minute goal, 13 shots to 21, four on target to two, and the game finished with ten men after Fatawu's second yellow card in the 67th minute. The defensive ledger is still the problem the Championship file predicted: 86 shots faced, the third-most in the league; 28 on target faced, joint-second-most; eleven conceded, joint-second-most behind Chelsea. The attack is fine, 7.69 expected goals and seven scored, par. Home games have split evenly, a two-one over Sunderland and a two-nil defeat by Liverpool, with 24 shots taken and 21 faced, and home is where the promotion was built: 14-8-1 in the Championship, one defeat in 23. Second-tier asterisk applied, and applied twice, because the 47 conceded in 46 that went with it has become eleven in five. There is no Premier League meeting with Fulham to read from last season, so the only form line is the one above.

Fulham are nineteenth with two points and the ledger has been saying the same thing for a month: the process is better than the position. The one-one with Manchester United at Craven Cottage before the break was a Martinez own goal and a deflected Matheus Cunha equaliser in the 89th minute, on 12 shots to 29 and 20 box touches to 43, the only home game in which the shot count has gone against them by more than four. The season figures are 72 shots taken and 83 faced, 7.74 expected goals for and 8.57 against, five scored and eight conceded; the home half of that is 51 shots, 6.11 expected goals and five goals in three games, and the away half is 21 shots, 1.63 expected goals and no goals at all in two. Fulham have not scored away from home this season. Last season's eleventh place was the most home-tilted in the league, 35 points at the Cottage and 17 on the road from a 4-5-10 away record with 17 goals, and nothing in the first two away trips, a one-nil at Sunderland and a goalless draw at Anfield, has argued with it. A side that has not scored away visits a side that has conceded eleven.

Sunderland are the only club in the Premier League that has not been out-shot in a game this season, and they are fourteenth. That is the whole page in one line. The ledger reads 66 shots taken and 60 faced, 25 on target, sixth-most, 16 on target faced, the third-fewest behind Arsenal and Forest, and 9.76 expected goals, the fourth-highest in the league. From that they have scored six, and only Coventry have fallen further below their expected goals. The five-three at the Etihad before the break was the season in ninety minutes: Brian Brobbey scored three, Sunderland had 17 shots to 16 and nine on target to six, and conceded five. Six shots on target faced in that one game is more than a third of the season's total. The home column is one win, one defeat, one goal, with 24 shots taken and 22 faced; last season's seventh place had 395 shots taken and 542 faced, a ledger that has been turned inside out by a side that now takes the shots and does not finish them. Both meetings with Brighton last season were decided by at most a goal, goalless at the Amex and a one-nil Brighton win at the Stadium of Light with the shot count 14 to 12 in Sunderland's favour.

Brighton have scored 16, three more than Manchester City and six more than anyone else, from 95 shots, 29 on target and 11.48 expected goals, the most in the division on all three counts bar the shots, where Manchester United's 113 is the exception. The three-nil over Arsenal was done by the hour: Gross, Kostoulas and Chema Andres, on 17 shots to 11 and five on target to two, with 40.1 per cent of the ball. The other side of the ledger is where the sixteen goals get spent: 58 shots faced is fine, 8.68 expected goals against is the sixth-highest in the league, and the one defeat, four-three at Chelsea, was the game where the defence was tested and failed. Away from the Amex the two trips have gone five-nil at Coventry and three-four at Stamford Bridge, eight scored and four conceded on 37 shots to 31. Last season's eighth place was a home product, 9-6-4 against 5-5-9 on the road, and the game at Sunderland went Brighton's way one-nil with the hosts taking more shots. The attack has produced 4.52 goals above expectation in five games; the ledger's reading of that is that the finishing has been excellent and will, on average, be less so.

Manchester United have taken 113 shots in five games, 18 more than Brighton in second and more than twice what Palace, Coventry, Newcastle or Aston Villa have managed. They have faced 53, one more than Forest and level with Arsenal. They have 9.68 expected goals, fifth-most, and 6.75 against. They are twelfth, with five points, and have won once. The one-one at Fulham before the break was the same story again: 29 shots to 12, 43 touches in the Fulham box to 20, 13 corners to 3, a goal behind to a Martinez own goal and level through Cunha's deflected shot in the 89th minute. This page called United to win at Craven Cottage and called them to win a fortnight before that, and both times the ledger was right about the game and wrong about the result, which is what regression looks like from the inside. Old Trafford has produced the five-two over Ipswich and the one-nil derby defeat, 49 shots taken and 15 faced. Last season's third place came with 596 shots, the most in the league, and a 13-3-3 home record, and the last meeting with Spurs at Old Trafford was a two-nil in February on 23 shots to 7 and ten on target to one.

Tottenham are bottom with two points, and the two goals that ended the wait for a first one, Gallagher's in the 86th minute and van Hecke's deep into stoppage time, came in a three-two home defeat by Aston Villa in which Villa scored three on 15 shots. Spurs had 20 shots, seven on target, 63.9 per cent of the ball, 31 box touches to 19 and eleven corners to one, and lost. The season ledger is 71 shots taken, ninth-most, and 76 faced; 4.93 expected goals, third-lowest, and 7.82 against; two scored and eight conceded. The attack's problem is in the quality of the chances rather than the count, and the BBC's match page put a number on it: Spurs were bottom of the league for expected goals per shot going into the Villa game. Roberto de Zerbi's home column is 0-1-2 with two goals; the away column is a three-nil defeat at Brentford and a goalless draw at Forest, 20 shots taken and 38 faced. Last season's seventeenth place had a better away record than home, 7-5-7 against 3-6-10, and the two meetings with United were a two-two at Tottenham in November and the two-nil at Old Trafford in February, where Spurs managed one shot on target.

Crystal Palace have been out-shot in every game this season, five from five, a distinction they share only with Newcastle, and the defensive ledger is the worst in the league on the measure that counts the quality of chances allowed: 9.46 expected goals against, with 84 shots faced, fourth-most, and 28 on target faced, joint-second-most. The goalless draw at Leeds before the break was the first clean sheet of the season, and the shot count, 12 to 13, was a one-shot gap, as it had been against Ipswich. Selhurst Park has been the problem: two home games, two defeats, four-one against Manchester City and three-two against Ipswich, seven conceded, 20 shots taken and 30 faced, 1.27 expected goals created across the pair. The attack on the road has been respectable, 4.99 expected goals from three trips and the win at Fulham. Last season's fifteenth place had the same shape, 21 points at home with nine draws and 24 away, and both meetings with Forest were drawn one-one, August at Selhurst Park on 8 shots to 9 and February at the City Ground on 14 shots to 9 in Palace's favour.

Nottingham Forest have the second-best defensive ledger in the division and nothing to show for it: 52 shots faced, the fewest; 15 on target faced, the second-fewest; 4.78 expected goals against, the second-lowest; and thirteenth place on five points. The reason is the home column, which reads three games, no goals scored, two conceded and two defeats, the latest a one-nil to Coventry before the break in which Forest had 24 shots to 10, 62.4 per cent of the ball and 32 box touches to 13, and put three on target. That is the game this page called for Forest, and the reason has not gone away: 82 shots taken, third-most in the league, 7.26 expected goals, and four goals, a larger shortfall than every club bar Coventry and Sunderland. The away column is where the points live, two trips, four goals, a win at Villa Park and a draw at Anfield, 34 shots taken and 20 faced. Last season had the same split: 4-8-7 at the City Ground, 7-3-9 on the road, sixteenth. Palace away is, on that reading, the fixture Forest want, and last season it was a one-one in which Forest had nine shots to 14.

Hull lost for the first time before the break and did it the way this page said they eventually would, except the other way round: at Newcastle they took 22 shots to 12, had 36 touches in the home box to 15 and seven corners to four, went two down inside eight minutes to Willock and Hall and got one back through Cho. The PDO case study has now out-shot opponents twice in a row, Chelsea and Newcastle, after being out-shot in the first three, and the season ledger is 61 taken and 69 faced, 5.28 expected goals for, fourth-lowest, and 7.38 against. Four conceded is joint-third-fewest. Home has been the defensive half of that: two games, two clean sheets, a two-nil over Manchester United on 8 shots to 21 and a goalless draw with Villa on 11 to 13, 19 shots taken and 34 faced, 1.58 expected goals for and 3.76 against, so the home record is built on repelling rather than creating. The Championship ledger, sixth on 73 points with 70 scored and 66 conceded and an 11-5-7 home record, says the real Hull concede more and score more than this; second-tier asterisk on both. Eighth after five games is still ahead of what the shots have earned, and the sample is still five games.

Everton are seventh, unbeaten, and have conceded three goals in five games, the joint-fewest in the league alongside Leeds, from 18 shots on target faced. The one-nil over Ipswich was Thierno Barry's goal in the eleventh minute and then an hour of management, 21 shots to 13 but two on target to four, against ten men from the 67th minute. The attack is a larger column than it was: 80 shots is the fifth-most in the league, 7.32 expected goals for six scored, and the three home games, the two-nil over Palace, the two-two with United and the one-nil over Ipswich, have produced 55 shots. Away from home the figures shrink, two draws, one goal, 25 shots taken and 31 faced, 2.95 expected goals, a goal apiece at Bournemouth and a goalless draw at Tottenham with 37.6 per cent of possession. Last season's thirteenth place was built on the road, 26 points away to 23 at home, with a 7-5-7 away record, and the draws this season have both come away. There is no Premier League meeting with Hull to read from last season.

Liverpool are unbeaten on nine points and have not won at Anfield: a two-two with Forest and a goalless draw with Fulham, 27 shots taken and 22 faced, 3.03 expected goals to 2.98, two scored and two conceded. The wins have come on the road, two-nil at Ipswich and one-nil at Bournemouth before the break, where Andoni Iraola went back to his old ground and Alexander Isak scored the only goal on 12 shots to 9. The season ledger is a good one: 76 shots taken, sixth-most, 58 faced, 8.34 expected goals for, seventh-most, and 6.1 against, the third-lowest in the league behind Arsenal and Forest. Seven goals from 8.34 is a little under par and four conceded from 6.1 a little over, which is what three draws in five looks like in the figures. Last season's fifth place was a home product, 10-6-3 at Anfield against 7-3-9 away, and both meetings with City went to City, three-nil at the Etihad in November on 14 shots to 7 and two-one at Anfield in February on 17 shots to 15 and seven on target to four. The home column that has not produced a win this season produced ten last season.

Manchester City have won five from five and lead by three, and the five-three over Sunderland before the break put a dent in the defensive ledger that this page had called the second-best in the league a fortnight ago: 3.57 expected goals conceded in one afternoon, nine shots on target faced, three goals to Brian Brobbey. The season figures now read 68 shots taken and 59 faced, 20 on target faced, 10.61 expected goals for, second only to Brighton, and 7.23 against, which has dropped from second-lowest to mid-table in one game. Thirteen scored is second in the league. The road column is still perfect, four-one at Palace and one-nil at Old Trafford, five scored, one conceded, 24 shots taken and 25 faced. Last season's second place had the best away record in the division bar Arsenal, 9-6-4, and the two wins over Liverpool came on 14 shots to 7 and 17 to 15. The pattern of the season has been to win the games that were close, two one-nils and a two-one, and Sunday is the first game that the ledger says is close before kick-off.

Coventry have a goal, a win and three points, and the goal and the win came together before the break: Jay Dasilva in the 55th minute at the City Ground, on 10 shots to 24 and 13 box touches to 32, with 37.6 per cent of the ball. It was the first time Frank Lampard's side had scored in the Premier League, in their fifth game, and the ledger says the drought was never about the chances: 51 shots, 16 on target, 4.86 expected goals, and one goal, which is the largest shortfall against expected goals in the division. The defence has faced 87 shots, second-most, and 8.63 expected goals against; home games have gone nil-one to Hull and nil-five to Brighton, no goals scored and six conceded on 25 shots to 28. The Championship was won with 95 points and 97 goals, 51 of them at home in a 17-4-2 record, and the second-tier asterisk sits on all of it, firmly, because 97 goals in 46 has become one in five. The win at Forest is the one piece of evidence that the division has a floor Coventry can reach; the home figures are the evidence that they have not found it at home.

Newcastle have lost the shot count in every game and faced 98 shots, eleven more than any other club, and are ninth with eight points and a level goal difference, nine scored and nine conceded. The two-one over Hull before the break was the pattern at its most extreme: two goals inside eight minutes, Willock and Hall, both from Barnes, then 22 shots faced to 12 taken, 36 touches in their own box against 15 in Hull's, and a goal conceded to Cho with 23 minutes left. The season's expected goals, 5.32 for and 8.89 against, is the third-worst defensive figure in the league, and nine goals from 5.32 is the second-largest surplus in the division behind Brighton. The BBC's own match page said the same thing in different words, on its own expected-goals figures: going into the Hull game only Chelsea had overperformed their expected goals by more than Newcastle. Away from home the two trips split, two-nil at Tottenham on 11 shots to 17 and one-four at Leeds on 7 to 15, 18 shots taken and 32 faced. Last season's twelfth place came with a 4-5-10 away record for 17 points, a total only Wolves, Burnley and Leeds failed to reach, and a side that keeps winning while being out-shot every week is not a side that has found a method so much as a side that has not yet been billed. This is the fixture where the regression this page keeps promising for Newcastle meets the one it keeps promising for Coventry.