The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Five

Brentford opened with a three-nil home win over Spurs on 3.88 expected goals and have drawn every game since: a goal apiece at Leeds where they out-shot the hosts 22 to 12, a goal apiece at home to Sunderland where they were out-shot 14 to 12 and out-touched in the box 33 to 22, and two-two at Bournemouth where they managed 8 shots to 20 and their goalkeeper made eight saves to keep the point. Six points and no defeat. The season ledger still reads well, 68 shots taken against 55 faced and 7.14 expected goals to 5.46, and last season's home column, 8-8-3, was the draw-heavy half of a ninth-place finish. The head-to-head is a curiosity: at Brentford last September the visitors out-shot the hosts 16 to 7 and drew two-two; at Stamford Bridge in January Brentford out-shot Chelsea 15 to 6 and lost two-nil. In both meetings the side with the shots did not win.

Chelsea have scored ten, second only to Brighton, from 5.92 expected goals, and conceded nine, more than every club bar Palace, Coventry and Ipswich. The two wins came at Fulham, three-two, and at home to Brighton, four-three; the defeat was two-one at the Emirates, where Chelsea were out-touched in the box 44 to 26 and needed eight saves from their keeper to keep it to one; and on Saturday they needed a second-half equaliser from Joao Pedro to draw two-two at home to Hull despite 68.3 per cent of the ball, 38 touches in the Hull box to 14 and 11 corners to 4. The 26 shots on target faced is the joint-most in the division. Last season Chelsea were the league's venue-agnostic club, 7-5-7 at home and 7-5-7 away, and finished tenth with a shot ledger, 511 for and 415 against, that always looked better than the position. This season's version is the reverse: the results have run ahead of a process that gives up as many chances as it makes.

Tottenham have played four Premier League games under Roberto de Zerbi without a goal, and the shot count says that is stranger than it looks: 51 shots, 12 on target, 3.37 expected goals, no reward. The two home games tell it best. Against Newcastle they had 17 shots to 11 and lost two-nil; against Everton on Saturday they had 62.4 per cent of the ball, 644 passes to 381 and 39 touches in the Everton box to 19, and drew nil-nil. The 12 shots on target across four games is the second-fewest in the league, ahead only of Saturday's opponents, and the 3.37 expected goals is the second-lowest, ahead of the same club by two hundredths. Last season's home column, 3-6-10 for 15 points, is the ledger that the summer was meant to fix, and the fixture history is the one column that leans their way: Spurs won at Villa Park in May by two goals to one with 10 shots to 5, after Villa had won at Tottenham in October by the same score.

Aston Villa have one point, one goal and the thinnest attacking line on the page: 33 shots, 6 on target and 3.35 expected goals in four games, all of them the lowest in the division. The goal came on Saturday, in a two-one home defeat by Forest in which Villa were out-shot 22 to 7 and out-touched in the box 32 to 17 before Igor Jesus scored late for the visitors. The one game where Unai Emery's side built something was the goalless draw at Hull, 13 shots and 1.93 expected goals on 73.8 per cent of the ball, and it produced one shot on target. The defensive figures are nearly as bad, 61 shots faced and 7.67 expected goals against, the second-highest in the league. Last season's fourth place was built on a 12-2-5 home record, and the away one, 7-6-6, is the half that travels to north London on Saturday; the shot ledger from that same season, 483 for and 490 against, already said fourth was borrowed.

Brighton lead every attacking column in this fixture: 13 goals, the most in the division, from 78 shots, second only to Manchester United, and 10.17 expected goals, the most by more than two clear goals. The five-nil at Coventry on Sunday came with 22 shots, 69.5 per cent of the ball and 584 passes to 249, against ten men for part of it; the week before, at home to Leeds, they took 20 shots to 10, put in 35 crosses to 13 and drew one-all. The one defeat, four-three at Stamford Bridge, was on Chelsea's expected goals as well as their scoreboard. The defence is the quieter story, 47 shots faced but 7.05 expected goals against, the fifth-highest in the league, and five conceded. Last season's home column was 9-6-4 with 20 conceded; the two meetings with Arsenal both went to Arsenal, two-one at the Emirates in December where Brighton were out-shot 24 to 8, and one-nil at the Amex in March where Brighton out-shot the champions 11 to 7 and lost anyway.

Arsenal are four from four and their defensive line is still the best set of numbers in the league: one goal conceded, 36 shots faced, the fewest, and nine shots on target faced, the fewest by one, on 2.71 expected goals against, the lowest by nearly a goal. That is last season's ledger, 27 conceded and 90 on-target shots faced across 38 games, continuing without interruption. The attack has been more of a grind than the record suggests: seven shots at Villa Park in a one-nil win, then a two-one over Chelsea from behind in which Martin Odegaard scored the winner and Arsenal took 16 shots and 44 touches in the box, then two-nil at Sunderland, where the expected goals were level at 1.88 to 1.8, David Raya saved a penalty and Bruno Guimaraes and Bukayo Saka scored against a home side that finished with ten. Last season's away column, 11-5-3 for 38 points, is the best on this page. The question Saturday asks is whether the meanest defence in the league can do what only Leeds have managed and hold the most productive attack in the league to a single goal.

Everton are unbeaten on six points and have drawn three in a row, which is the most Everton sequence available: a two-nil over Palace they were out-xG'd for, a goal apiece at Bournemouth, then two-two at home to Manchester United, where they came from behind twice and Ainsley Maitland-Niles equalised in stoppage time on his debut with the shot count at 18 to 14 in Everton's favour, and nil-nil at Tottenham on 37.6 per cent of the ball. The defence is the argument: three conceded, a total only Arsenal, Manchester City and Hull have bettered, from 14 shots on target faced. The attack is not: 5.08 expected goals across four games is the sixth-lowest in the league. Last season's handbrake-at-home habit, 6-5-8 at home for 23 points against 26 on the road, is the ledger that Saturday's opponent will have read.

Ipswich have six points from two wins and two defeats, and the defeats were heavy: five-two at Old Trafford, where they were out-shot 33 to 9, and two-nil at home to Liverpool, where Alexander Isak scored twice against a side that had 14 shots to 10 and 10 attempts from outside the box. The wins were both by a single goal, two-one over Sunderland and three-two at Selhurst Park on Saturday, where Zian Flemming scored in injury time against ten men with Ipswich ahead on shots 12 to 11 and box touches 30 to 21. Ten conceded is the joint-second-most in the division and 26 shots on target faced is the joint-most, which is the Championship defence, 47 conceded in 46 games behind a 14-8-1 home record, meeting a higher standard of opponent. Second-tier asterisk applied. The away half of that promotion season, 9-7-7 for 34 points, is the relevant one here, and the £171m window was spent on precisely this kind of afternoon.

Newcastle have been out-shot in all four games and it has not improved: 27 to 13 by Liverpool, 17 to 11 at Tottenham, 17 to 8 at home to Bournemouth in a two-two draw, then 15 to 7 at Leeds on Monday night in a four-one defeat in which Dominic Calvert-Lewin did the damage and Leeds had 30 touches in the Newcastle box to 20. Across four games that is 39 shots taken and 76 faced, the most faced in the division by five, and 3.88 expected goals for against 7.3 against. Five points from that is the scoreboard settling arguments the shot count keeps having. The summer sold Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon, and the shot ledger is where you would look for the receipt. The case for the defence is last season's home column, 10-2-7 with 36 scored, the fourth-best home goals tally in the league, and the fact that the home draws this season have come against Liverpool and Bournemouth, two sides who out-shoot most people.

Hull are fourth on eight points and remain the case study for PDO that this page made them a fortnight ago: two wins, two draws, out-shot in three of the four games, 39 shots taken and 57 faced, 3.69 expected goals for and 5.94 against, and two conceded, a figure only Arsenal have bettered and only Manchester City have matched. The goalless draw with Villa was 26.2 per cent possession, 229 passes to 694 and nine touches in the Villa box to 24. Saturday at Stamford Bridge was different: Hull took 14 shots to 12, led, and were pegged back to two-two by a second-half Joao Pedro equaliser. That is the first time they have out-shot a Premier League opponent. The Championship file, sixth on 73 points with 66 conceded and 682 shots faced, says the defence has a level and this is not it; the away half of that file, 10-5-8, says they travel adequately. Second-tier asterisk on both. The wins have stopped, the points have not, and the sample is still four games.

Nottingham Forest have not scored at home this season, a one-nil defeat by Leeds and a nil-nil with Spurs in which they had 12 shots to 11 but 12 touches in the opposition box to 30, and have taken all five of their points on the road: two-two at Anfield on 2.3 expected goals, then two-one at Villa Park on Saturday where they took 22 shots to 7, 32 box touches to 17 and Igor Jesus scored late. The season ledger is healthier than the position: 58 shots taken to 42 faced, 6.16 expected goals for and 4.11 against, the third-lowest in the division behind Arsenal and Manchester City, and 12 shots on target faced, the fourth-fewest. Last season the City Ground column was the weak one, 4-8-7 with 20 scored, and the road column, 7-3-9, was where the season was rescued. Two games in, the pattern is repeating exactly.

Coventry are the only club without a point and share the goalless column with Tottenham, and the shots say the second of those is less deserved than the first: 41 shots, 13 on target and 4.19 expected goals without a goal, including 11 shots to 6 at home to Hull, 12 to 15 at the Etihad on 22.4 per cent of the ball, and 14 to 22 in Sunday's five-nil home defeat by Brighton, played partly with ten men. The defence is the larger problem, 63 shots faced, 7.53 expected goals against, the third-highest in the league, and ten conceded. Frank Lampard's side won the Championship with 95 points and 97 goals, and the away half of that season, 11-7-5 with 46 scored, is the file that says the goals exist. Second-tier asterisk, applied firmly: the matchweek three edition noted that Coventry had met their fellow promoted clubs five times across two seasons without scoring, and the other three Premier League games, against Arsenal, Manchester City and Brighton, have added three more blanks against everybody else.

Bournemouth are winless on three points and their last three shot counts argue with that: 17 to 13 against Everton, 17 to 8 at Newcastle, and 20 to 8 with ten on target at home to Brentford on Saturday, a two-two draw in which the Brentford goalkeeper made eight saves and the Bournemouth one made none. Marco Rose is still waiting for a first win as head coach; the ledger says it is nearer than the table implies. Across four games they have faced 42 shots, a total only Arsenal and Manchester United have bettered, and put 24 on target, the joint-most in the league. Last season's identity was 18 draws in 38, and the home column, 7-10-2, contained two defeats all season. The fixture is the other witness: Liverpool won four-two at Anfield in August with 19 shots to 10, and Bournemouth won three-two at the Vitality in January with 12 to 14. The home side has won both.

Liverpool are unbeaten with one win and three draws, and the two halves of Andoni Iraola's start read differently. The win, two-nil at Ipswich with Alexander Isak scoring twice, came on 10 shots to 14 and 0.68 expected goals to 0.76; the home draws, two-two with Forest and nil-nil with Fulham on Saturday, came with Liverpool taking 13 and 14 shots and being out-touched in the box 24 to 18 by Fulham. Two home games, two points, and 64 shots across the season, the fourth-most in the league, that have produced six goals from 6.69 expected. Last season's fifth place had a 10-6-3 home record and a 7-3-9 road one, and Bournemouth is the venue where that road record lost by three goals to two. Bradley Barcola's £106m attack has not yet been the point; the four points dropped across two home draws went to sides that had fewer shots.

Leeds are third and unbeaten and the shots have been against them in three of the four games: 11 to 12 at Forest in a one-nil win, 12 to 22 at home to Brentford, 10 to 20 at Brighton where they did not attempt a shot from outside the box and had 32.9 per cent of the ball, and then Monday night, 15 to 7 at home to Newcastle in a four-one win with Dominic Calvert-Lewin the difference. The expected goals disagree with the shots, which is the interesting part: 6.31 for and 5.27 against, so the chances Leeds do make are good ones, 2.5 expected goals from ten shots at Brighton being the clearest example. Last season's home column, 9-5-5 for 32 points, and this fixture, a four-one home win in December with 20 shots to 9, are both in their favour; the away column that season, 2-9-8, is the one the win at Forest has already argued with.

Crystal Palace have the worst defensive ledger on the page and it is not close: 71 shots faced, the second-most in the league, 26 on target faced, the joint-most, 8.15 expected goals against, the most, and eleven conceded, also the most. The one win was three-two at Fulham, with Ben Chilwell scoring on his return to the club, in a game Fulham took 25 shots to 10 and had 64 touches in the Palace box to 19; the home games have been lost four-one to Manchester City and three-two to Ipswich, the second of them to an injury-time goal with Palace down to ten. Last season Palace took more points away, 24, than at home, 21, and this season's home column, 0-0-2 with seven conceded, is that habit exaggerated. The March meeting at Selhurst Park was goalless with Palace failing to put any of their 12 shots on target; the December one at Elland Road was the four-one.

Manchester City have four wins, the last two by a single goal: one-nil over Coventry on 77.6 per cent of the ball and 819 passes to 220, then one-nil at Old Trafford on Sunday with ten men, Erling Haaland scoring what BBC Sport called a controversial winner in a game United took 16 shots to 6 and hit the woodwork twice. The season ledger is still the second-best in the league behind Arsenal by most measures: 42 shots faced, 11 on target faced, the third-fewest, 3.66 expected goals against, the second-lowest, and 7.79 expected goals for, the third-highest. Last season's home column was 14-3-2 with 45 scored, the most home goals in the division, and this fixture last December was a three-nil at the Etihad with 18 shots to 8. The one blemish on the head-to-head was the goalless draw at Sunderland on New Year's Day, four shots on target apiece.

Sunderland have four points and a process that has flipped from last season's. Then, seventh place came with 395 shots taken and 542 faced, results a long way ahead of performances; now the ledger reads 49 taken and 44 faced, 6.19 expected goals for against 5.83 against, and only ten shots on target faced, the second-fewest in the league behind Arsenal. Three goals from 6.19 expected is the problem, a tally only Villa, Coventry and Tottenham have failed to match. The home defeat by Arsenal on Saturday was level on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.88; David Raya saved a penalty and Sunderland finished with ten, and the point at Brentford came from Enzo le Fee's late penalty after Sunderland had 33 touches in the Brentford box to 22. Last season's away column, 5-6-8 for 21 points, is the one that goes to the Etihad, and it includes the trip to Manchester that ended three-nil.

Fulham have one point, and the point came on Saturday at Anfield, Alvaro Arbeloa's return to Liverpool producing a goalless draw in which Fulham had 10 shots to 14 but 24 touches in the Liverpool box to 18. The three defeats are where the ledger argues: two-three at home to Chelsea, one-nil at Sunderland without a shot on target, and two-three at home to Palace after leading twice, with 25 shots to 10, 64 box touches to 19, 678 passes and 3.14 expected goals, the fourth-highest single-game figure of the season. Four goals from 6.12 expected goals and 60 shots taken, the joint-fifth-most in the league, is a side whose process is better than eighteenth. Craven Cottage is the wound: 11-2-6 for 35 points last season, the most home-tilted haul in the division against 17 on the road, and this season 0-0-2 with six conceded. If Fulham's season is going to start, the ledger still says it starts at home. It said that a fortnight ago too.

Manchester United are thirteenth with the widest positive shot ledger in the league: 84 taken, the most, 41 faced, the second-fewest behind Arsenal, and 8.08 expected goals, second only to Brighton, for four points. The fortnight since the five-two over Ipswich has produced a two-two at Everton in which United led twice and conceded in stoppage time to a debutant, and Sunday's derby defeat, one-nil to ten-man City on 16 shots to 6, 28 box touches to 16, 27 crosses and two efforts against the woodwork. Regression is the obvious word and the audit note is the same as it was in August: the numbers say the direction, not the weekend. Last season's third place came with the league's strongest shooting ledger, 596 taken, and a 7-8-4 away record; the head-to-head split, one-all at Craven Cottage in August and three-two at Old Trafford in February, was decided by venue and by very little.