The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Ten

Everton open the round on Friday night seventh on 13 points, from three wins, four draws and two defeats, with nine goals scored and nine let in. BBC Sport's expected goals put their chances at 12.16 created and 12.98 allowed, so the position rests less on the attack, which has finished 3.16 goals below what it made, than on a defence that has conceded 3.98 fewer than the chances it faced, the second-largest cushion of that kind after Brighton's. They have taken 125 shots and faced 133, although 43 of their own were on target against 36. At home it is two wins, a draw and a defeat, five scored and four conceded, from 61 shots to 56 and expected goals of 4.93 to 5.60: Crystal Palace were beaten 2-0 while making 2.04 expected goals to Everton's 1.16, and Chelsea won 2-0 there with 18 shots to six. On Monday Everton won 1-0 at Newcastle, 16 shots to 17 and 2.15 expected goals to 1.47, in a match with a red card for Newcastle. Last season they came 13th with 49 points, 23 at home and 26 away, and were out-shot 420 to 533 across the 38 games.

Coventry City sit 16th on nine points and are one of three clubs yet to draw, with three wins and six defeats. Nobody has created less: 8.31 expected goals, against 13.12 allowed, a gap of minus 4.81. The nine goals are 0.69 above those chances, and the 16 conceded are 2.88 above the chances against. They have taken 97 shots and faced 151, the third-highest total in the division, with 29 on target to 38. Their four away games have brought one win, 1-0 at Nottingham Forest despite 10 shots to 24, two goals in all, seven conceded and expected goals of 3.00 to 5.66; Arsenal won 3-0 against them on 20 shots to four. The five at home include a 4-1 win over Newcastle from nine shots to 19 and last Saturday's 3-1 against Sunderland, 12 shots to 17 and 0.71 expected goals to 1.65, in a match with a red card for Sunderland. Last season Coventry won the Championship* on 95 points, scoring 97 and conceding 45 in 46 games, and 40 of those points came on the road from 11 wins, seven draws and five defeats.

Leeds United are 12th on 11 points and have drawn five of nine, with two wins and two defeats besides. Their expected goals are almost exactly level, 11.25 made and 11.30 conceded, a difference of minus 0.05 that ranks tenth. The goals are less balanced: nine scored, 2.25 short of the chances, and eight let in, 3.30 fewer than the chances against, the fourth-widest cushion in the league. They have taken 105 shots and faced 125, with 33 on target to 39. At home Leeds are unbeaten in four, with a 4-1 win over Newcastle and draws against Brentford, Crystal Palace and Manchester United, six scored and three conceded, from 52 shots to 54 and expected goals of 6.14 to 4.06. Away from home it is a win, two draws and two defeats, the last of them 2-0 at Bournemouth last Saturday on 10 shots to 11. Last season Leeds came 14th with 47 points, and the split was stark: 32 of those points came at home, from nine wins, five draws and five defeats, and 15 away.

Tottenham Hotspur arrive ninth on 12 points with three wins in a row, the last of them a 2-0 home win over Crystal Palace on 34 shots to two and 3.26 expected goals to 0.14, in a match with a red card for Palace. Over the season they have taken 148 shots, the fourth-most, and faced 109, with 40 on target to 31, and their expected goals of 11.37 to 9.85 give a difference of plus 1.52. Ten goals scored and ten conceded leave them 1.37 under their chances at one end and close to them at the other. The road record is the weaker half: one win, two draws and a defeat, three scored and four conceded, from 47 shots to 57 and expected goals of 4.34 to 5.81. That one away win was 2-0 at Chelsea on 15 shots to seven, and their opening game brought a 3-0 defeat at Brentford on nine shots to 26. Last season Spurs finished 17th with 41 points, 26 of them away, and against Leeds they won 2-1 away in October and drew 1-1 at home in May.

Arsenal lead the table on 24 points from eight wins and one defeat, three clear of Manchester City, and the chances back the position more firmly than anyone else's. Their expected goals read 14.89 created and 6.94 allowed, a difference of plus 7.95 that is the best in the league, and 6.94 is the fewest chances conceded by any club. Fourteen goals scored sit 0.89 below the chances, and five conceded, the fewest in the division, sit 1.94 below theirs. They have taken 117 shots and faced 103, with 38 on target to 24, also the fewest on target against. All four home games have been won, nine goals to two, with the shots 69 to 36 and expected goals of 8.26 to 1.79, the 3-0 win over Coventry on the opening night built on 20 shots to four. On Sunday they won 1-0 at Liverpool on 10 shots to 17, with three on target to none and expected goals of 0.96 to 1.15. Last season Arsenal were champions on 85 points, 47 of them at home from 15 wins, two draws and two defeats, and conceded 27 goals in 38 games.

Hull City are 11th on 11 points and have drawn five of nine, two of them in their last two outings, and on the chances they have done well to be there. Their expected goals are 9.31 created, the second-lowest total in the league, and 13.13 allowed, a difference of minus 3.82; 11 goals scored are 1.69 above the chances and 10 conceded are 3.13 below theirs. They have taken 96 shots, the second-fewest, and faced 131, with 29 on target to 43. Away from home they have won 1-0 at Coventry, drawn 2-2 at Chelsea and lost at Newcastle and Fulham, four scored and five conceded, from 47 shots to 53 and expected goals of 3.62 to 5.04; at Fulham they managed five shots to 18 and none on target, in a match with a red card for Fulham. Last Saturday Ipswich held them 2-2 at home, with nine shots to 15. Last season Hull came sixth in the Championship* on 73 points, 35 of them away from home, and were out-shot 515 to 682 over 46 games.

Fulham sit 15th with nine points (two wins, three draws, four defeats), and among the bottom ten only Nottingham Forest have a better expected-goal difference. Their expected goals stand at 13.78 created and 11.66 allowed, plus 2.12 and sixth in the league, but only nine goals have come from those chances, 4.78 short and the third-largest shortfall after Nottingham Forest and Sunderland. They have taken 129 shots and faced 128, with 41 on target to 34. At home they have one win, one draw and two defeats, six scored and seven conceded, from 69 shots to 62 and expected goals of 7.48 to 5.42, and the defeats were both by the odd goal: 3-2 to Chelsea and 3-2 to Crystal Palace, a match in which Fulham had 25 shots to 10 and 3.13 expected goals to 1.97. The win was 1-0 against Hull on 18 shots to five. Last Saturday they drew 1-1 at Aston Villa on 14 shots to 16 and 2.21 expected goals to 1.71. Last season Fulham came 11th on 52 points, 35 of them at home from 11 wins, two draws and six defeats.

Newcastle United are 13th on 11 points, three wins, two draws and four defeats, and the shots against them tell the main story: 155 faced, the second-most in the league after Palace's 169, with 46 on target. They have taken 113 and put 29 on target, among the lowest counts in the division. Their expected goals of 10.47 made and 15.19 allowed give a difference of minus 4.72, while 12 goals scored are 1.53 above the chances and 15 conceded are close to theirs. Away from home they have won two and lost two, 2-0 at Tottenham and 2-0 at Crystal Palace, both while facing more shots than they took, and 4-1 defeats at Leeds and at Coventry, six scored and eight conceded, from 47 shots to 58 and expected goals of 4.42 to 6.07. On Monday they lost 1-0 at home to Everton on 17 shots to 16 and 1.47 expected goals to 2.15, in a match with a red card for Newcastle. Last season they finished 12th on 49 points with only 17 away, and the two league meetings with Fulham went 2-1 to Newcastle and 2-0 to Fulham.

Nottingham Forest are 19th on six points and have not scored at the City Ground in four league games this season, one draw and three 1-0 defeats from 62 shots to 41 and 3.20 expected goals to 3.80. Across all nine they have made 13.55 expected goals and allowed 9.53, plus 4.02 and fourth-best in the league, yet scored six, the fewest of any club and 7.55 below the chances, the largest shortfall in the division by more than a goal. They have taken 152 shots, the second-most after Manchester United's 167, and faced 88, the fewest, though only 31 of their own have been on target. Away from home the chances are lopsided: 90 shots to 47 and expected goals of 10.35 to 5.73, for one win, two draws and two defeats. Last Saturday they lost 2-0 at Brentford on 15 shots to seven and 0.85 expected goals to 0.46. Last season Forest finished 16th on 44 points, and only 20 of those came at home, from four wins, eight draws and seven defeats.

Manchester City have 21 points and second place from seven wins and two defeats, and the two defeats are their last two league games: 2-1 at Aston Villa on 15 shots to eight, and 1-0 at home to Brighton last Saturday on 21 shots to seven and 1.92 expected goals to 1.00. Over the season nobody has created more, 17.90 expected goals, against 11.66 allowed, a difference of plus 6.24, third behind Arsenal and Bournemouth. The 20 goals scored are 2.10 above the chances and the 10 conceded are 1.66 below. They have taken 138 shots and faced 95, with 50 on target, second only to Chelsea's 53, against 34. On the road they have won three of four, scoring nine and conceding three, from 54 shots to 46 and expected goals of 5.53 to 2.99, including 3-0 at Liverpool and 4-1 at Crystal Palace. Last season City were runners-up on 78 points, 33 of them away, and won 2-1 at Forest in December before a 2-2 draw in Manchester in March.

Brighton & Hove Albion are third on 19 points and have scored 24 goals, more than anyone, while conceding seven, with only Arsenal's five lower. Both totals run well ahead of the chances: BBC Sport's expected goals have them on 16.46 made and 13.13 allowed, so the goals are 7.54 above the chances at one end, the biggest surplus in the league, and 6.13 below them at the other, the biggest cushion. The difference on chances, plus 3.33, ranks fifth. They have taken 149 shots and faced 109, with 46 on target to 33. At home they are unbeaten in four, three wins and a draw, 13 scored and one conceded, from 75 shots to 32 and expected goals of 8.81 to 5.34, with 4-0 against Aston Villa, 3-0 against Arsenal and 5-0 against Crystal Palace. Last Saturday they won 1-0 at Manchester City on seven shots to 21, with 1.00 expected goals to 1.92. Last season Brighton finished eighth on 53 points, 33 at home, and both meetings with Brentford ended in Brighton wins, 2-1 and 2-0.

Brentford are sixth on 14 points, with three wins, five draws and one defeat, and all four of their away games have been draws: 1-1 at Leeds and at Hull, and 2-2 at Bournemouth and at Aston Villa, six goals each way from 58 shots to 64 and expected goals of 5.12 to 7.21. At home it is three wins, a draw and a defeat, 10 scored and three conceded. Across the nine games their expected goals read 14.30 made, fifth in the league, and 12.74 allowed, a difference of plus 1.56, while 16 goals scored are 1.70 above the chances and nine conceded are 3.74 below theirs, the third-widest cushion behind Brighton and Everton. They have taken 126 shots and faced 135, with 36 on target to 38. Last Saturday they beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at home on seven shots to 15, with 0.46 expected goals to 0.85 and one shot on target each. Last season Brentford came ninth on 53 points, level with Brighton, though only 21 came away from home, from six wins, three draws and 10 defeats.

Crystal Palace are 18th on seven points from two wins, a draw and six defeats, and the chances against them are the heaviest in the league on every count: 169 shots faced, 54 on target and 17.96 expected goals conceded. Their own expected goals are 10.90, a difference of minus 7.06, the worst in the division. The 21 goals conceded, also the most, are 3.04 above the chances, and the nine scored are 1.90 below theirs. They have taken 90 shots, the fewest of any club. At home it is one win and three defeats, with six goals for and 10 against, from 50 shots to 64 and expected goals of 5.26 to 7.07; the win was 3-1 over Nottingham Forest despite 13 shots to 24. Last Saturday they lost 2-0 at Tottenham on two shots to 34 and 0.14 expected goals to 3.26, in a match with a red card for Palace, a third defeat in a row. Last season Palace finished 15th on 45 points, and only 21 of those came at home, from four wins, nine draws and six defeats, though they beat Liverpool 2-1 there in September.

Liverpool, fifth with 15 points from four wins, three draws and two defeats, have played their best football away from Anfield: three wins and a draw from four, seven scored and three conceded, on 70 shots to 46 and expected goals of 6.47 to 3.77. At home they have one win in five and four goals, from 5.62 expected goals made to 6.62 allowed. Overall the expected goals are 12.09 made and 10.39 conceded, plus 1.70, with 11 goals scored, 1.09 short of the chances, and nine conceded, 1.39 under theirs. They have taken 140 shots and faced 110, with 39 on target to 28, the third-fewest on target against. On Sunday they lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal despite 17 shots to 10 and 1.15 expected goals to 0.96, without a single shot on target. Last season Liverpool came fifth on 60 points, only 24 of them away from home from seven wins, three draws and nine defeats.

Ipswich Town are 14th on 11 points and have the second-worst expected-goal difference in the league, minus 5.50, from 11.74 made and 17.24 allowed, the second-largest total against after Crystal Palace's. Their goals have outrun the chances at the attacking end, 14 scored and 2.26 more than expected, while 18 conceded, the second-most, are 0.76 above the chances against. They have taken 99 shots and faced 144, with 37 on target to 47. At home they have two wins, a draw and a defeat, five scored and five conceded, from 42 shots to 51 and expected goals of 4.08 to 5.54. The draw was a 1-1 with Nottingham Forest in which Ipswich were out-shot by 10 and out-created by almost two goals, and the defeat was 2-0 to Liverpool. Last Saturday they drew 2-2 at Hull on 15 shots to nine. Last season Ipswich were runners-up in the Championship* on 84 points, losing once at home, and conceded 47 goals in 46 games.

Bournemouth have 12 points and eighth place from an even split of wins, draws and defeats, and on the chances they belong higher. Their expected goals are 16.44 created, third behind Manchester City and Brighton, and 9.81 allowed, a difference of plus 6.63 that is second only to Arsenal's. The goals have lagged: 14 scored are 2.44 below the chances and 13 conceded are 3.19 above theirs, the largest excess of goals conceded over chances in the division. They have taken 127 shots and faced 94, with 45 on target to 32. Away from home they have a win, a draw and two defeats, seven scored and nine conceded, from 41 shots to 48 and expected goals of 5.77 to 5.28; the win was 3-0 at Manchester United and the heaviest defeat 5-1 at Chelsea on nine shots to 10, with 1.46 expected goals to 1.08. They have won their last three, the latest 2-0 at home to Leeds on 11 shots to 10. Last season Bournemouth came sixth on 57 points, with 18 draws, 26 of their points away from home.

Sunderland are bottom on five points, one win, two draws and six defeats, and the chances say they are not that far adrift. Their expected goals are 13.42 made, ninth in the league, and 15.43 allowed, a difference of minus 2.01, but only seven goals have come from those chances, 6.42 short and the second-largest shortfall after Forest's. The 17 conceded are 1.57 above the chances against. They have taken 113 shots and faced 125, with 34 on target each. At home the shots and chances are close to even, 51 shots to 46 and expected goals of 4.94 to 4.68, yet the four games have brought a 1-0 win over Fulham, a 0-0 draw with Leeds and defeats by Arsenal and Brighton, one goal scored and four conceded. Last Saturday they lost 3-1 at Coventry on 17 shots to 12 and 1.65 expected goals to 0.71, in a match with a red card for Sunderland. Last season Sunderland came seventh on 54 points, 33 of them at home, and beat Chelsea in both league meetings, 2-1 each time.

Chelsea have 16 points and fourth place, from five wins, a draw and three defeats, and their scoring is the big outlier: 19 goals from 12.48 expected, 6.52 above the chances and the second-largest surplus after Brighton's. They have also conceded 15 from 12.90 expected, 2.10 more, so the expected-goal difference is minus 0.42, 11th in the league. They have taken 126 shots and faced 114, and their 53 shots on target are the most of any club, while the 50 faced are the second-most. Away from home they have two wins and two defeats, six scored and seven conceded, from 61 shots to 49 and expected goals of 4.44 to 6.55; they won 3-2 at Fulham and 2-0 at Everton and lost 2-1 at Arsenal and 3-0 at Brentford. Last Saturday they beat Manchester United 2-0 at home on 19 shots to 12 and 2.67 expected goals to 1.17, in a match with a red card for United. Last season Chelsea finished tenth on 52 points, an even 26 at home and 26 away.

Manchester United are 17th on seven points, one win, four draws and four defeats, and they have taken more shots than anyone, 167, 15 more than Nottingham Forest, while facing 106. Shots are not everything: only 45 were on target, the same number as they have faced, and BBC Sport's expected goals put their chances at 13.66 made and 14.69 allowed, minus 1.03. The 10 goals scored are 3.66 below the chances and the 15 conceded are 0.31 above. At home they have one win, a draw and two defeats, six scored and seven conceded, from 78 shots to 37 and expected goals of 7.46 to 6.74; the win was 5-2 over Ipswich on 33 shots to nine, and the defeats were 1-0 to Manchester City and 3-0 to Bournemouth. Last Saturday they lost 2-0 at Chelsea on 12 shots to 19, in a match with a red card for United. Last season they finished third on 71 points, 42 of them at home from 13 wins, three draws and three defeats.

Aston Villa have 12 points and tenth place from an even split of results, on chances that look like a side lower down. They have made 9.92 expected goals and allowed 14.75, minus 4.83, the third-worst difference in the league, and their 27 shots on target are the fewest of any club. The 10 goals scored are close to the chances and the 13 conceded are 1.75 below theirs. They have taken 107 shots and faced 140. Away from home they have won two, drawn one and lost one, four goals for and six against, from 49 shots to 68 and expected goals of 4.71 to 6.53, winning 3-2 at Tottenham and 1-0 at Newcastle. At home it is one win, two draws and two defeats, six scored and seven conceded, from 58 shots to 72 and expected goals of 5.21 to 8.22; the win was 2-1 over Manchester City on eight shots to 15. Last Saturday they drew 1-1 at home to Fulham on 16 shots to 14, with 1.71 expected goals to 2.21. Villa's 2025-26 season ended fourth with 65 points, 27 of them away from home from seven wins, six draws and six defeats.