THE STAT MAN / THE LEDGER
Every call, and how it did
2026-27 Premier League · results through 12 October 2026
2026-27 Premier League
19As read
5Lean right
26Wrong
10Pending
22Always home
15Always draw
13Always away
50Graded calls
50 calls graded. Giving the same answer to every game, home win, draw or away win, would have read 22, 15 or 13 of 50 on the same results.
By round
| Round | As read | Lean right | Wrong | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening weekend | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matchweek 2 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Matchweek 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matchweek 5 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Matchweek 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matchweek 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
By kind of call
| Called | Calls | As read | Lean right | Wrong |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 21 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| Draw | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Away win | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
Every call
Opening weekend published 16 August 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Coventry City | Arsenal | 3-0 | As read |
| Hull City v Manchester United | Manchester United | 2-0 | Wrong |
| Everton v Crystal Palace | Draw | 2-0 | Wrong |
| Ipswich Town v Sunderland | Ipswich Town | 2-1 | As read |
| Nottingham Forest v Leeds United | Nottingham Forest | 0-1 | Wrong |
| Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur | Tottenham Hotspur | 3-0 | Wrong |
| Brighton v Aston Villa | Draw, lean Brighton | 4-0 | Lean right |
| Manchester City v Bournemouth | Manchester City | 2-1 | As read |
| Newcastle United v Liverpool | Newcastle United | 2-2 | Wrong |
| Fulham v Chelsea | Fulham | 2-3 | Wrong |
Matchweek 2 published 25 August 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace v Manchester City | Manchester City | 1-4 | As read |
| Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | Liverpool | 2-2 | Wrong |
| Bournemouth v Everton | Draw | 1-1 | As read |
| Coventry City v Hull City | Coventry City | 0-1 | Wrong |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | Newcastle United | 0-2 | As read |
| Chelsea v Brighton | Brighton | 4-3 | Wrong |
| Leeds United v Brentford | Draw, lean Leeds United | 1-1 | As read |
| Sunderland v Fulham | Fulham | 1-0 | Wrong |
| Manchester United v Ipswich Town | Manchester United | 5-2 | As read |
| Aston Villa v Arsenal | Arsenal | 0-1 | As read |
Matchweek 3 published 2 September 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town v Liverpool | Draw, lean Liverpool | 0-2 | Lean right |
| Newcastle United v Bournemouth | Draw | 2-2 | As read |
| Brentford v Sunderland | Brentford | 1-1 | Wrong |
| Brighton v Leeds United | Brighton | 1-1 | Wrong |
| Fulham v Crystal Palace | Draw, lean Fulham | 2-3 | Wrong |
| Manchester City v Coventry City | Manchester City | 1-0 | As read |
| Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Wrong |
| Hull City v Aston Villa | Draw, lean Aston Villa | 0-0 | As read |
| Everton v Manchester United | Manchester United | 2-2 | Wrong |
| Arsenal v Chelsea | Arsenal | 2-1 | As read |
Matchweek 5 published 15 September 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford v Chelsea | Draw, lean Brentford | 3-0 | Lean right |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Aston Villa | Draw | 2-3 | Wrong |
| Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal | Arsenal | 3-0 | Wrong |
| Everton v Ipswich Town | Everton | 1-0 | As read |
| Newcastle United v Hull City | Draw, lean Newcastle United | 2-1 | Lean right |
| Nottingham Forest v Coventry City | Nottingham Forest | 0-1 | Wrong |
| Bournemouth v Liverpool | Draw, lean Bournemouth | 0-1 | Wrong |
| Leeds United v Crystal Palace | Leeds United | 0-0 | Wrong |
| Manchester City v Sunderland | Manchester City | 5-3 | As read |
| Fulham v Manchester United | Manchester United | 1-1 | Wrong |
Matchweek 6 published 8 October 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal v Leeds United | Arsenal | 2-1 | As read |
| Aston Villa v Brentford | Brentford | 2-2 | Wrong |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | Draw, lean Bournemouth | 5-1 | Wrong |
| Ipswich Town v Fulham | Ipswich Town | 2-1 | As read |
| Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-2 | As read |
| Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | Manchester United | 1-1 | Wrong |
| Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | Wrong |
| Hull City v Everton | Draw, lean Everton | 2-2 | As read |
| Liverpool v Manchester City | Draw, lean Manchester City | 0-3 | Lean right |
| Coventry City v Newcastle United | Newcastle United | 4-1 | Wrong |
Matchweek 7 published 16 October 2026
| Fixture | The call | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton v Chelsea | Everton | - | Pending |
| Brentford v Liverpool | Draw, lean Brentford | - | Pending |
| Fulham v Hull City | Fulham | - | Pending |
| Manchester City v Ipswich Town | Manchester City | - | Pending |
| Newcastle United v Aston Villa | Draw, lean Newcastle United | - | Pending |
| Bournemouth v Sunderland | Draw, lean Bournemouth | - | Pending |
| Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | Brighton & Hove Albion | - | Pending |
| Leeds United v Manchester United | Draw, lean Manchester United | - | Pending |
| Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | Arsenal | - | Pending |
| Tottenham Hotspur v Coventry City | Tottenham Hotspur | - | Pending |
How to read it
Every call the Stat Man publishes goes into this file as it was published, and every call is graded against the result, the good rounds and the bad. These are calls, not bets: the ledger holds no odds, no stakes and no profit, and a call is a reading of the numbers, never a tip.
Results come from the football-data.co.uk file archived with the next preview, so a result is never taken from memory. A call is scored on what it names first, a team to win or a draw, and a draw call may carry a lean to one side.
50 graded calls is a description and not a finding. Under about a hundred calls a hit rate proves nothing, which is why the always-home, always-draw and always-away counts sit beside it.
- As read
- The side the call named won, or a draw was called and drawn.
- Lean right
- A draw was called with a lean to one side, and that side won. Counted beside the headline figure, never inside it.
- Wrong
- Any other finished game.
- Void
- Postponed, abandoned or moved outside the round. Left out of every count.
- Pending
- Not yet in the results file. Graded in the next preview.
What the ledger is teaching
A pattern becomes a note only when it has a count and the match numbers behind it, and a note changes how a fixture is read only after three separate rounds with the numbers behind most of the cases. Until then it is carried and counted, not obeyed.
- Open. Away-side win calls: 10 made, 3 as read, 7 wrong. In 3 of the 7 misses the match's own expected goals backed the result that beat the call, in 1 the result went against them and in 3 they were level. Carried, not acted on: 3 of 7 is not most of the instances. For comparison 10 home-win calls missed and 0 of those misses followed the match's own expected goals, so they read as finishing and not as misreading. Seen across 4 rounds.
Corrections to the ledger
- 13 October 2026. The published wording of three pending calls was corrected after independent re-review (the Manchester United record, one Newcastle phrase and one Sunderland phrase). Picks and leans are unchanged.
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