The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Nine

Chelsea are fifth on 13 points, with four wins, a draw and three defeats, and the table reads better than the chances behind it. They have scored 17 goals from 9.81 expected, a surplus of 7.19 that no other club has matched, and conceded 15 from 11.38, 3.62 above the total those chances were worth. The shot counts are even (107 taken, 102 faced, with 43 on target against 45) and the expected-goal difference is minus 1.57, eleventh. Chelsea have won two of their four home games and drawn and lost one each, scoring 11 and conceding eight on shots of 46 to 53 and expected goals of 5.40 to 4.90. Brighton were beaten 4-3 on 17 shots to 15, Hull held them 2-2 on 12 to 14, and Bournemouth lost 5-1 to a side that managed 10 shots to nine and 1.10 expected goals to Bournemouth's 1.38. Last Saturday Tottenham won 2-0 with 15 shots to seven, and Chelsea were shown a red card. Away from home they won at Fulham (3-2) and at Everton (2-0, from 18 shots to six), and also lost at Arsenal and Brentford, with six scored and seven conceded. Last season they finished tenth on 52 points, 26 at home and 26 away, from 511 shots to 415.

United are sixteenth on seven points from one win, four draws and three defeats, and nobody has shot as often: 155 in eight games, 13 more than Brighton's 142, against 87 faced, the fourth-fewest. They have 40 shots on target to 35 and 12.57 expected goals to 11.93, plus 0.64 and ninth in the league on the difference. The 10 goals are 2.57 short of those chances and the 13 conceded are 1.07 above theirs. On the road they have yet to win in four, with three draws and a defeat, four scored and six conceded, though the shots were 77 to 50: a 2-0 defeat at Hull came from 21 shots to eight, and the 1-1 draws at Fulham and Leeds from 29 to 12 and 13 to 12. At home there was a 5-2 win over Ipswich on 33 shots to nine, a 1-0 defeat by a Manchester City side that was shown a red card, and last Sunday a 3-0 defeat by Bournemouth despite 17 shots to 10, on expected goals of 1.17 to 2.15. Last season ended third for United, on 71 points, 29 of them away from home (seven wins, eight draws, four defeats) from 256 shots to 245, and both meetings with Chelsea were United wins: 2-1 on 11 shots to five, and 1-0 at Chelsea in April on four shots to 21.

Bournemouth are thirteenth on nine points, from two wins, three draws and three defeats, and the chances behind that record are the third-best in the league: 14.45 expected goals for, 9.40 against, plus 5.05. They have taken 116 shots and faced 84, the second-fewest, with 40 on target to 31. The leak is at the back, where the 13 goals conceded exceed the chances against them by 3.60, an excess only Chelsea's beats, while the 12 scored are 2.45 under. Home games are where the gap is widest: one victory, two draws and a defeat for five points, yet 75 shots to 36 and 8.92 expected goals against 4.06. They drew 1-1 with Everton on 17 shots to 13, drew 2-2 with Brentford on 20 to eight (10 shots on target to two), lost 1-0 to Liverpool on 9 to 12 and beat Sunderland 2-0 from 29 shots to three, on expected goals of 4.23 to 0.07, in a match with a red card for Sunderland. On the road, the 3-0 win at Manchester United came from 10 shots to 17, and a 5-1 defeat at Chelsea followed a 2-1 defeat at City and a 2-2 draw at Newcastle. Last season they finished sixth on 57 points, 31 of them at home from seven wins, ten draws and two defeats, and both meetings with Leeds finished 2-2.

Leeds are seventh on 11 points from two wins, five draws and a defeat, and five draws is a figure only Brentford share. They have conceded six goals, the second-fewest after Arsenal's five, against 10.41 expected, a cushion of 4.41 that is bigger than any other club's, and they have scored nine from the same 10.41, which leaves the expected-goal difference at exactly zero. The shots lean the other way: 95 taken to 114 faced, 32 on target to 34. On the road they have won once, drawn twice and lost once, scoring three and conceding three from 43 shots to 60 and 4.35 expected goals to 6.02: a 1-0 win at Forest came on 11 shots to 12, a 1-1 draw at Brighton on 10 to 20, a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal on 11 to 13, and last Sunday a 0-0 draw at Sunderland on 11 to 15, a game that added a fifth draw to the record and widened the cushion by 0.83, with no goal conceded against 0.83 expected. Their one comfortable home result was a 4-1 win over Newcastle on 15 shots to seven; the other three at home were draws, with Brentford getting 22 shots to their 12. Last season ended with Leeds fourteenth with 47 points: 32 at home and only 15 away (two wins, nine draws, eight defeats) from 206 shots to 267.

Brentford are sixth on 11 points, from two wins, five draws and a defeat, and the draws are the pattern: all four away games have ended level, with six goals scored and six conceded from 58 shots to 64 and 4.86 expected goals to 7.03. Over the eight games they have taken 119 shots and faced 120, with 35 on target to 37, and their 13.47 expected goals to 11.80 make plus 1.67, seventh. The 14 goals are 0.53 above the chances and the nine conceded sit 2.80 below, the fourth-biggest cushion of any club. Home form reads two victories, a draw and a defeat, eight scored and three conceded, with shots of 61 to 56 and expected goals of 8.61 to 4.77: Tottenham and Chelsea were each beaten 3-0 (26 shots to nine in the first, 13 to 12 in the second), Sunderland held them 1-1 on 14 shots to 12, and Liverpool won 2-1 on 21 shots to 10 in a match with two red cards for Brentford. Last season Brentford ended ninth with 53 points, split 32 at home and 21 away (six wins, three draws, ten defeats), taking 177 shots to 268 on the road.

Forest are eighteenth on six points from one win, three draws and four defeats, and their six goals, a total only Coventry and Sunderland share, are 7.81 below the 13.81 expected, the widest shortfall anywhere. Little else about the record belongs to a bottom-three side: 137 shots taken, third among the 20 clubs, against 81 faced, the lowest figure; 30 on target to 26; and an expected-goal difference of plus 5.02, fourth. Home games are where it has failed outright, with no goal in four: Tottenham held them 0-0 and Leeds, Coventry and Arsenal each won 1-0, against shots of 62 to 41 and expected goals of 3.58 to 3.35. All six goals came away from home, where they have won once, drawn twice and lost once from 75 shots to 40 and 10.23 expected goals to 5.44: they drew 2-2 at Liverpool, won 2-1 at Villa with 22 shots to seven, lost 3-1 at Palace despite 24 to 13, and last Friday drew 1-1 at Ipswich with 17 shots to seven and 2.31 expected goals to 0.46. Last season they finished sixteenth on 44 points, 24 of them away from home from 191 shots to 277, and they won both meetings with Brentford, 3-1 at home and 2-0 at Brentford's ground.

Coventry are nineteenth on six points from two wins and six defeats, and the figures do not argue with the table: 85 shots taken against 134 faced, 25 on target against 36, and 7.62 expected goals for and 11.89 against, a difference of minus 4.27, seventeenth. Of the 15 goals conceded, 3.11 exceed the value of the chances against them, the fourth-biggest excess anywhere, and the six scored fall 1.62 short. The four home games have produced a single win and three defeats, scoring four and conceding eight on 47 shots to 59 with expected goals of 4.56 to 5.92: Hull won 1-0, Brighton won 5-0 in a match with a red card for Coventry, Newcastle were beaten 4-1 despite 19 shots to nine, and last Saturday Fulham won 1-0 although Coventry had 13 shots to 12, with expected goals at 0.51 to 0.55. Away from home came a single win and three defeats, two goals scored and seven conceded from 38 shots to 75: they won 1-0 at Forest while being out-shot 24 to 10, a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal on four shots to 20, and defeats at City and Tottenham. The asterisk (*) marks second-tier evidence: Coventry topped last season's Championship with 95 points from 28 wins, 11 draws and seven defeats, 55 of them at home (17 wins, four draws, two defeats), with 414 shots to 226 against lower-division opposition.

Sunderland are twentieth and last, with five points from a single win, two draws and five defeats. Their six goals are 5.38 below the 11.38 expected, the second-largest shortfall behind Forest's, while the 14 conceded are 1.05 under the 15.05 expected against them, the third-highest total of chances faced. The shot counts are not far apart, 96 taken to 113 faced, with 32 shots on target against 30, and the expected-goal difference of minus 3.67 is fourteenth. The road is where it breaks: no win in four, five goals for and 10 against from 45 shots to 67 and 6.01 expected goals to 10.05, including a 5-3 defeat at City despite 17 shots to 16, and a 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth on three shots to 29, a match with a red card for Sunderland. At home there was a 1-0 victory against Fulham, a 2-0 defeat by Arsenal with another red card for Sunderland, and a 2-0 defeat by Brighton, who were also shown one, and last Sunday a 0-0 draw with Leeds on 15 shots to 11, which makes one goal in four home games. Last season Sunderland were seventh with 54 points, 21 of them away from home (five wins, six draws, eight defeats), from 167 shots to 315.

Hull are tenth with 10 points, having won twice, drawn four times and lost twice, and the table is kinder than the figures: 87 shots taken against 116 faced, 26 on target against 40, and 8.34 expected goals to 12.18, minus 3.84. Nine goals scored is 0.66 above the chances, and eight conceded is 4.18 below the 12.18 expected against them, a cushion that only Leeds and Brighton exceed. Home games are the unbeaten part, one win and three draws with five scored and three conceded, though the shots were 40 to 63 and the expected goals 4.48 to 7.18: United lost 2-0 although they took 21 shots to Hull's eight, Villa held them 0-0, Everton drew 2-2 on 15 shots to Hull's nine, and last Sunday Brentford left with a 1-1 draw on 14 shots to Hull's 12. On the road they have one win, one draw and two defeats, with four scored and five conceded: a 1-0 win at Coventry, a 2-2 draw at Chelsea, a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle despite 22 shots to 12, and a 1-0 loss at Fulham on five shots to 18 in a match with a red card for Fulham. The asterisk (*) marks second-tier evidence: Hull were sixth in the Championship last season with 73 points, 38 at home (11 wins, five draws, seven defeats) from 266 shots to 284.

Ipswich are twelfth with 10 points, having won three, drawn one and lost four, and they carry the lowest expected-goal difference of any club, minus 5.44, from 10.96 for and 16.40 against, the most chances faced by any club. They have taken 84 shots, the fewest, and faced 135, level with Crystal Palace behind only Newcastle's 139, with 34 on target against 44. The 12 goals scored are 1.04 above the chances and the 16 conceded 0.40 below. At home they won twice, drew once and lost once, five goals each way, from 42 shots to 51: Sunderland and Fulham were each beaten 2-1 (Fulham having 13 shots to 11), Liverpool won 2-0, and last Friday Forest drew 1-1 with 17 shots to seven. Elsewhere they have won one of four, scoring seven and conceding 11 on shots of 42 to 84 and expected goals of 6.79 to 10.94: United won 5-2 from 33 shots to nine, Everton won 1-0 in a match with a red card for Ipswich, City won 3-2 from 19 shots to eight; the one win was 3-2 at Palace, in a match in which Palace were shown a red card. The asterisk (*) marks second-tier evidence: Ipswich were Championship runners-up last season with 84 points, 34 of them away from home (nine wins, seven draws, seven defeats) from 314 shots to 266, and they won both games against Hull, 2-0 at Hull and 1-0 at home.

Manchester City lead the league on 21 points, ahead of Arsenal on goal difference, from seven wins and a defeat. Their 20 goals are second only to Brighton's, their expected-goal difference of plus 6.55 is second only to Arsenal's, and their 44 shots on target lead the division. The 117 shots taken against 88 faced and the 16.99 expected goals to 10.44 complete the picture, and the goals scored run 3.01 above the chances while the goals conceded run 1.44 below the chances against. Home games have been four wins from four, with 11 scored and six conceded from 63 shots to 42 and expected goals of 10.83 to 7.23: Bournemouth 2-1 (13 shots to five), Coventry 1-0, Sunderland 5-3 (16 shots to 17, on 2.82 expected goals to 3.57) and Ipswich 3-2 (19 to eight). On the road City have won three of four, the exception being last Saturday's 2-1 defeat at Villa, a game in which they had 15 shots to eight, seven on target to two, and 1.56 expected goals to 0.61. Last season they finished second on 78 points, with 45 at home from 14 wins, three draws and two defeats, and 312 shots to 169.

Brighton sit third on 16 points following five wins, a draw and two defeats, with the most goals in the league, 23, and the third-fewest conceded, seven. All five wins were to nil (4-0 over Villa, 5-0 at Coventry, 3-0 over Arsenal, 2-0 at Sunderland and 5-0 over Palace), and all seven goals against came in the three games that were not won. The goals are 6.79 above the chances, second only to Chelsea's surplus, while the seven conceded sit 4.37 below the 11.37 expected, second only to Leeds' cushion. The base is real but smaller than the scoreline: 142 shots taken, the second-most, to 88 faced, 43 on target to 27, and 16.21 expected goals to 11.37, plus 4.84, fifth. At home they won three and drew one, scoring 13 and conceding one on shots of 75 to 32 and expected goals of 9.28 to 5.18. On the road they have won twice and lost twice, 10 scored and six conceded from 67 shots to 56 and 6.93 expected goals to 6.19, with a 4-3 defeat at Chelsea on 15 shots to 17 and last Sunday a 2-0 defeat at Liverpool from 17 shots to 13, against Liverpool's four efforts on target to their one. Last season they finished eighth on 53 points, 20 of them away from home (five wins, five draws, nine defeats) from 233 shots to 256, and they beat City 2-1 at home on 12 shots each before a 1-1 draw at City, where City had 22 shots to six.

Tottenham are fourteenth on nine points from two wins, three draws and three defeats, and their goals have followed their chances closely: eight scored from 8.16 expected, 10 conceded from 9.91. The chances themselves are thin, since 8.16 is the second-lowest total of any club and the expected-goal difference of minus 1.75 ranks thirteenth, from 114 shots taken to 107 faced and 31 on target to 30. The home record is one win, a draw and two defeats, five scored and six conceded, on 67 shots to 50, with expected goals of 4.16 to 3.84: Newcastle won 2-0 although Tottenham had 17 shots to 11, Everton drew 0-0, Villa won 3-2 although Tottenham had 20 shots to 15, and Coventry were beaten 3-1. On the road they have won one, drawn two and lost one, scoring three and conceding four from 47 shots to 57: Brentford won 3-0 with 26 shots to nine, drew 0-0 at Forest, drew 1-1 at United with a red card of their own, and last Saturday won 2-0 at Chelsea with 15 shots to seven, Chelsea also shown a red card. Last season they finished seventeenth on 41 points, only 15 of them at home (three wins, six draws, ten defeats) from 241 shots to 219.

Palace are seventeenth with seven points, having won twice, drawn once and lost five times, and the goals against tell most of it: 19 conceded, the most in the league, against 15.75 expected, an excess of 3.25 that is the third-largest. They have faced 135 shots, level with Ipswich behind Newcastle's 139, and 45 of them were on target, the most in the division alongside Chelsea's 45, and their expected-goal difference of minus 4.72 is nineteenth. At home they have won one and lost three, with six scored and 10 conceded from 50 shots to 64 and 5.27 expected goals to 8.18: City won 4-1 with 18 shots to nine, Ipswich won 3-2 in a match with a red card for Palace, Forest lost 3-1 despite taking 24 shots against 13, and last Sunday Newcastle won 2-0 although Palace had 17 shots to 10. Away from home they have a victory, a draw and two defeats, scoring three and conceding nine on 38 shots to 71: a 3-2 win at Fulham on 10 shots to 25, a goalless draw at Leeds, a 2-0 defeat at Everton and a 5-0 defeat at Brighton on five shots to 17. Last season ended with Palace fifteenth on 45 points, 24 of them on the road (seven wins, three draws, nine defeats), and they won 3-1 at Tottenham in March after a 1-0 home defeat in December.

Aston Villa are ninth on 11 points from three wins, two draws and three defeats, and the figures put them lower: 91 shots taken and 126 faced, with only 24 of them on target (the fewest anywhere) against 38, and 8.97 expected goals to 12.84, minus 3.87, sixteenth. The nine goals scored match the chances almost exactly, 0.03 above, and the 12 conceded sit 0.84 below. All three wins came while taking fewer shots than the other side: 3-2 at Tottenham on 15 shots to 20, 1-0 at Newcastle on 15 to 16 and last Saturday 2-1 against City from eight shots to 15, two on target to seven and 0.61 expected goals to 1.56. At home they have won one, drawn one and lost two, scoring five and conceding six from 42 shots to 58 and 4.03 expected goals to 5.95: Arsenal won 1-0 with seven shots each, Forest won 2-1 although Villa managed just seven shots to their 22, and Brentford drew 2-2 on 14 shots to 20. Away, they have won twice, drawn once and lost once, with four scored and six conceded from 49 shots to 68, with a 4-0 defeat at Brighton on six shots to 21 in a match with a red card for Villa, and a goalless draw at Hull. Last season Villa came fourth on 65 points, with 38 of them at home (12 wins, two draws, five defeats) from 261 shots to 216, and they won 3-1 at home against Fulham in September before losing 1-0 at Fulham in April.

Fulham are fifteenth on eight points from two wins, two draws and four defeats, and the chances say they should have more: 115 shots taken against 112 faced, 36 on target to 31, and 11.48 expected goals to 10.39, plus 1.09, eighth. The eight goals scored fall 3.48 short of the chances, the third-biggest gap of its kind, while the 10 conceded are 0.39 below. Home games have brought a win, a draw and two defeats, with six scored and seven conceded on shots of 69 to 62 and expected goals of 7.49 to 5.43: a 3-2 defeat by Palace came on 25 shots to 10 and 3.14 expected goals to 1.97, and a 1-0 victory against Hull from 18 shots to five, in a match with a red card for Fulham. On the road they have won one, drawn one and lost two, scoring two and conceding three from 46 shots to 50: Sunderland won 1-0, Liverpool were held 0-0, Ipswich won 2-1, and last Saturday Fulham won 1-0 at Coventry from 12 shots to 13. Last season they finished eleventh on 52 points, only 17 of them away from home (four wins, five draws, ten defeats) from 212 shots to 250, and they won 1-0 at home against Villa in April on 13 shots to 10, after losing 3-1 at Villa in September.

Liverpool are fourth on 15 points from four wins, three draws and a defeat. They have taken 123 shots against 100 faced, with 39 on target to 25, the second-fewest allowed, and 12.12 expected goals to 9.59, plus 2.53, sixth. The goals fall 1.12 short of the chances, while the eight conceded are 1.59 under. The home and away records read differently. On the road they have not lost: three victories and a draw, seven scored and three conceded, on shots of 70 to 46 and expected goals of 6.95 to 4.00, including a 2-2 draw at Newcastle from 27 shots to 13 and a 2-1 victory at Brentford in a match with two red cards for Brentford. At home they have a victory, two draws and a defeat, four scored and five conceded, with shots of 53 to 54 and expected goals of 5.17 to 5.59: Forest drew 2-2, Fulham 0-0, City won 3-0 in a match with a red card for Liverpool, and last Sunday Brighton were beaten 2-0 despite 17 shots to 13. Last season Liverpool ended fifth with 60 points, 36 of them at home from 327 shots to 209, and against Arsenal they won 1-0 at home with nine shots to 11, then drew 0-0 away.

Arsenal are second on 21 points, level with City, from seven wins and a defeat, and no club has a higher expected-goal difference, plus 7.75, from 13.92 for and 6.17 against, the fewest chances allowed anywhere. They have faced 86 shots, the third-fewest, and 24 on target, the fewest, against 107 taken and 35 on target. The goals follow the chances modestly, 13 scored being 0.92 under and five conceded 1.17 under. At home they have won four from four, scoring nine and conceding two from 69 shots to 36 and 8.22 expected goals to 1.84. The road is thinner: three victories and a defeat, four scored and three conceded, on shots of 38 to 50 and expected goals of 5.70 to 4.33: they won 1-0 at Villa (seven shots each) and at Forest (nine to 14), won 2-0 at Sunderland, and lost 3-0 at Brighton from 11 shots to 17. Last season Arsenal topped the table on 85 points, 47 of them earned at home (15 wins, two draws, two defeats) and 38 away, with 247 shots to 178 on the road, and against Liverpool they lost 1-0 away on 11 shots to nine before drawing 0-0 at home on nine shots to eight and four on target to none.

Newcastle are eighth on 11 points from three wins, two draws and three defeats, and no club has faced more shots: 139 against 96 taken, with 27 on target to 41 and 9.10 expected goals to 13.48, minus 4.38, eighteenth. The goals have flattered them on balance, with 12 scored 2.90 above the chances and the 14 conceded also 0.52 above, and only twice have they out-shot an opponent, against Coventry and Villa, losing both. At home they took five points from four games (one win, two draws and a defeat), six goals each way, on 49 shots to 81 and expected goals of 4.71 to 7.51: Liverpool drew 2-2 on 27 shots to 13, Bournemouth drew 2-2 on 17 to eight, Hull lost 2-1 despite 22 shots to 12, and Villa won 1-0 although Newcastle had 16 shots to 15. On the road they have won twice and lost twice, scoring six and conceding eight from 47 shots to 58: they won 2-0 at Tottenham, lost 4-1 at both Leeds and Coventry, and last Sunday won 2-0 at Palace from 10 shots to 17. Last season Newcastle ended twelfth with 49 points, 32 of them at home (ten wins, two draws, seven defeats) and 17 away, with 220 shots to 243 on the road.

Everton are eleventh with 10 points, having won twice, drawn four times and lost twice, and the figures sit a little below that: 109 shots taken against 116 faced, 38 on target to 34, and 10.06 expected goals to 11.69, minus 1.63, twelfth. The eight goals scored are 2.06 short of the chances and the nine conceded are 2.69 under them, the fifth-biggest cushion of any club. Five goals for and four against came in four home games (a pair of wins, a draw and a defeat) on 61 shots to 56: Palace were beaten 2-0, United drew 2-2 with Everton having 18 shots to 14, Ipswich lost 1-0 in a match with a red card of their own, and Chelsea won 2-0 from 18 shots to six. Away from home there has been no win in four, with three draws and a defeat, three scored and five conceded from 48 shots to 60 and 5.26 expected goals to 6.13: 1-1 at Bournemouth, 0-0 at Tottenham, 2-2 at Hull and, last Saturday, a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal on eight shots to 20. Last season Everton ended thirteenth with 49 points, 26 of them away from home (seven wins, five draws, seven defeats) despite 188 shots to 317, and they won 3-2 at Newcastle in February on nine shots to 17, after losing 4-1 at home in November.