The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Eight

Ipswich are tenth on nine points, having won three and lost four, and the shot counts do not back that standing: 77 taken against 118 faced, the fourth-most in the league, 31 on target against 39, and 10.5 expected goals for to 14.09 against. That works out at minus 3.59 on the chance model and minus four on the scoreboard. The 15 goals they have let in are the second-highest total anywhere, 0.91 beyond what the chances against them warranted, while the 11 they have scored sit 0.5 over theirs. Home games have yielded two wins and a defeat, scoring four and conceding four, with shots at 35 to 34 and expected goals at 3.71 to 3.15: Sunderland and Fulham were both beaten 2-1, Fulham despite shooting 13 times to Ipswich's 11, on 1.81 expected goals against their 1.15, and Liverpool won 2-0. Away from home it has been harder, one win and three defeats, seven for and 11 against, 42 shots to 84. At Manchester United, where they lost 5-2, they managed nine shots against 33, and on Saturday City won 3-2 with 19 shots to eight and 69.7 per cent possession. The asterisk (*) applies to what comes next: second in last season's Championship, on 84 points, included 50 from the 23 home matches (14 wins, eight draws, one defeat) and 379 shots to 220, a far bigger home margin than 35 to 34.

Forest are nineteenth on five points, with four of their seven games lost, and their five goals are fewer than any other club's, 6.5 below the 11.5 expected goals their chances were worth, the largest shortfall anywhere. The shots are not the cause: 120 taken (only Manchester United and Brighton have more), 74 faced (only Bournemouth have faced fewer), 25 on target against 23, and plus 3.17 on expected-goal difference, fifth in the league. Four home games have brought no goal at all: defeats by Leeds, Coventry and, on Sunday, Arsenal, each 1-0, and a goalless draw with Tottenham. Across the four that is 62 shots to 41, nine on target against seven and 3.58 expected goals to 3.35. Every goal has come away from home, five in three games, from 58 shots to 33 and 7.92 expected goals to 4.98: 2-2 at Liverpool, a 2-1 win at Villa on 22 shots to seven, and a 3-1 loss at Palace in which they had 24 shots to 13 and hit the woodwork three times. In 2025-26 they finished sixteenth with 44 points, 20 of them at home and 24 away, across 19 games each.

Villa are twelfth on eight points, having won two, drawn two and lost three. Their 22 shots on target are the fewest in the league, from 83 shots, and they have faced 111 shots (the fifth-most), 31 of them on target, with expected goals of 8.36 for and 11.28 against. Home has been the problem: one point from nine, three goals scored and five conceded, starting with a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on seven shots each, then a 2-1 loss to Forest on seven shots to 22, then a 2-2 draw with Brentford despite 20 shots to 14, and 2.28 expected goals to 1.06. On their travels they have two wins, a draw and a defeat, scoring four and conceding six: they lost 4-0 at Brighton, drew 0-0 at Hull, won 3-2 at Tottenham and, on Saturday, won 1-0 at Newcastle after being out-shot 16 to 15, with 1.57 expected goals to 0.99. Last season they were fourth with 65 points, 38 of them at home and 27 away. They also beat City twice in the league, 1-0 at home in October with nine shots to 18, and 2-1 at City in May with 12 to 16.

City have won all seven of their games, scoring 19 and letting in seven, and lead the table by three points on 21. Their goal difference of plus 12 is second to Brighton's plus 18, and on the chance model they are also second, plus 5.6 to Arsenal's plus 6.42, from 102 shots to 80, 37 on target to 29 and 15.43 expected goals, a league-high, to 9.83. The 19 goals are 3.57 over the chances, the third-largest surplus after Brighton's and Chelsea's, and the seven conceded are 2.83 under, the fourth-largest cushion. Away from home they are three from three, scoring eight and conceding one, from 39 shots to 38 and 4.6 expected goals to 2.6: a 4-1 win at Palace, a 1-0 at United in which they were out-shot 16 to six, and a 3-0 at Liverpool with 64.6 per cent possession. At home they are four from four with 11 goals for and six against; the latest, Saturday's 3-2 over Ipswich, was 19 shots to eight and 3.53 expected goals to 1.66. Last season they were second with 78 points, 45 of them at home and 33 away, from nine wins, six draws and four defeats on the road.

Arsenal are second with 18 points from six wins and one defeat, and no side has a better expected-goal difference: plus 6.42, from 11.96 for and 5.54 against, the lowest expected-goals-against total anywhere. Arsenal have come out ahead on expected goals in each of their seven games, including the 3-0 defeat at Brighton, where the figures were 1.63 to 1.31. Only 21 shots on target have been faced, fewer than anyone, and the five goals let in are 0.54 under the chances. Their three home games are three wins, with seven goals for and two against, shots of 49 to 28, 6.26 expected goals to 1.21 and 21 shots on target against 11. Away from home, three wins in four have brought four goals for and three against on 38 shots to 50 and 5.7 expected goals to 4.33; Sunday's 1-0 at Forest came with nine shots to 14, one on target to two, 73.7 per cent possession and a 30-17 lead in box touches. They won last season's title with 85 points, 47 of them at home, where they scored 41 and conceded 11.

Everton are eighth with 10 points, two wins, four draws and one defeat, that defeat being Saturday's 2-0 home defeat by Chelsea: six shots to 18, five on target to seven, 0.43 expected goals to 1.47 and 47.2 per cent possession. The totals are close, 101 shots to 96, 35 on target to 30 and 9.43 expected goals to 9.73, which is minus 0.3 on the model and plus one on the scoreboard. The seven goals conceded are 2.73 fewer than the chances against them warranted, the fifth-largest cushion in the league; the eight scored are 1.43 under theirs. All three away games this season have been draws: Bournemouth 1-1, Tottenham 0-0, Hull 2-2, with three goals each way, 40 shots each way, 17 shots on target against 12 and expected goals of 4.63 to 4.17. In four home games they have won two, drawn one and lost one, scoring five against four with 61 shots to 56 and 4.8 expected goals to 5.56. Last season they finished thirteenth with 49 points (23 home, 26 on the road), and lost both meetings with Arsenal: 1-0 at home on five shots to 13 and 2-0 away on nine to 25.

Coventry are seventeenth on six points, five of their seven games lost, and the shot counts put them second from bottom on process: 72 taken (only Palace have fewer), 122 faced (level with Newcastle for second-most), 23 on target against 33, and minus 4.23 on expected-goal difference, ahead only of Palace. Each win came with fewer shots than the opposition, 1-0 at Forest on 10 shots to 24 and 4-1 over Newcastle on nine to 19; the only game they have won on shots this season was the 1-0 home loss to Hull, 11 to six. The 14 goals conceded are 2.66 above the chances they have faced, the second-largest excess in the league, and the six scored are 1.11 under theirs. Home matches have produced one win, two defeats, four goals for and seven against, 34 shots to 47 and 4.05 expected goals to 5.37, and one of the defeats was a 5-0 loss to Brighton in which a Coventry player was sent off. On Monday Tottenham won 3-1 against them, with Coventry on 12 shots to 16, one on target to five and 34.6 per cent possession. The asterisk (*): Coventry's Championship title last season took 95 points, 28 wins and 97 goals, 55 points at home from 414 shots to 226, a margin the Premier League home figure of 34 to 47 does not resemble.

Fulham are eighteenth on five points, with four defeats in seven, and the shots are nearer par than the table: 103 taken against 99, 33 on target against 29, 10.93 expected goals to 9.88, plus 1.05, ninth in the league, and minus three on the scoreboard. The seven goals scored are 3.93 under the chances, the third-largest shortfall after Forest's and Sunderland's. The win came on Saturday, 1-0 against Hull, in a match where Fulham had a player sent off and took 18 shots to five, six on target to none, with 76.5 per cent possession and a 54-8 lead in box touches. Away this season they have no win in three, scoring one and conceding three, with 34 shots to 37, nine shots on target against 12 and 3.44 expected goals to 4.45; they lost 1-0 at Sunderland without a shot on target, drew 0-0 at Liverpool and went down 2-1 at Ipswich. Home: one win, one draw, two defeats, six goals to seven on 69 shots to 62 and 7.49 expected goals to 5.43. In 2025-26 they finished eleventh with 52 points: 35 at home and only 17 away, where four wins and five draws came from 19 games.

Chelsea are fourth on 13 points and have lost twice. Their 17 goals are the third-most in the league, and the chances do not account for them: 9.34 expected goals, which makes a surplus of 7.66 that only Brighton exceed. The other end looks different. They have faced 41 shots on target, second only to Palace, conceded 13 goals, 2.36 more than the 10.64 expected, and stand at minus 1.3 on expected-goal difference, twelfth, against plus four on the scoreboard. Chelsea are unbeaten in their three home games this season, with 11 goals for and six against, 39 shots to 38, 19 on target to 15 and 4.93 expected goals to 4.16: they beat Brighton 4-3, drew 2-2 with Hull on 12 shots to 14, and beat Bournemouth 5-1 on 10 shots to nine. Away from home they have split four games between two wins and two defeats, and Saturday's 2-0 at Everton, with 18 shots to six and 1.47 expected goals to 0.43, was the cleanest of them. They finished tenth last season on 52 points, 26 each at home and on the road, and beat Tottenham both times: 1-0 away in November with 15 shots to three, and 2-1 at home in May with nine each.

Tottenham are sixteenth on six points, having won once in seven. The six goals, level with Coventry and Sunderland, are the second-fewest in the league, and four of their seven games have ended without a Tottenham goal. Monday's 3-1 over Coventry, the only win, came on 16 shots to 12, five on target to one and 65.4 per cent possession, with expected goals at 0.87 to 0.82. On the season they have taken 99 shots and faced 100, 27 on target to 26, and 7.42 expected goals to 9.44, minus 2.02, thirteenth. Away is where the figures thin out: two draws and a defeat, one goal for and four against, 32 shots to 50, seven on target against 14, with 3.26 expected goals to 5.6. They lost 3-0 at Brentford on nine shots to 26, played out a goalless draw at Forest in which they had no shot on target, and at United a 1-1 draw included a Tottenham red card. Home: one win, one draw, two defeats, with five goals for and six against on 67 shots to 50 and 4.16 expected goals to 3.84. Last season they were seventeenth on 41 points, most of them earned on the road (26, against 15 at home), and Chelsea beat them in both meetings.

Palace are fourteenth on seven points, four of their seven games lost, and they are the only team in the league yet to win the shot count in a single game this season: out-shot seven times in seven, 71 taken and 125 faced, the fewest and the most. Of those 125, 43 were on target, again the most, with expected goals of 9.44 for and 14.8 against, which is minus 5.36, the lowest in the division. The 17 goals conceded are more than anyone's and 2.2 over the chances. Home: one win, two defeats, six scored and eight conceded, 33 shots to 54 and 3.68 expected goals to 7.23. Manchester City won 4-1 there on 18 shots to nine (nine on target to one), while the 3-1 win over Forest came with 13 shots to 24 and three woodwork hits for Forest. On the road: one win, one draw, two defeats, with three goals for and nine against from 38 shots to 71, the latest a 5-0 loss at Brighton on Sunday with five shots to 17. In 2025-26 they finished fifteenth on 45 points, 21 at home and 24 away, and split the two meetings with Newcastle, losing 2-0 away in January and winning 2-1 at home in April.

Newcastle sit eleventh on eight points, and the table hides a pattern: they have out-shot their opponents twice, 19 to nine at Coventry and 16 to 15 at home to Villa on Saturday, and lost both, 4-1 and 1-0. In the other five games they were out-shot every time and collected all eight of their points. Overall that is 86 shots taken and 122 faced (level with Coventry for second-most), 25 on target against 37, and 8.15 expected goals to 11.89, minus 3.74. The 10 goals scored are 1.85 over the chances, the fourth-largest surplus, and the 14 conceded are 2.11 over theirs. Away they have one win and two defeats, four goals for and eight against, with 37 shots to 41, 13 on target to 18 and 3.44 expected goals to 4.38: a 2-0 win at Tottenham on 11 shots to 17, and 4-1 defeats at Leeds and Coventry. At home the record is a win, two draws and a defeat, six goals each, 49 shots to 81 and 4.71 expected goals to 7.51. Last season they were twelfth on 49 points, 32 at home and 17 away, winning only four of 19 away games.

Hull are ninth on nine points, and the table is well ahead of the shots: 75 taken, 102 faced, 24 on target against 34, and 6.77 expected goals, the league's lowest total, to 10.44 against. That is minus 3.67 on the chance model and plus one on the scoreboard. Their eight goals are 1.23 over the chances, and the seven conceded are 3.44 under theirs, the third-largest cushion. Hull have yet to lose at home this season, taking five points from three games with four goals for and two against despite shots of 28 to 49 and expected goals of 2.91 to 5.44: United were beaten 2-0 on eight shots to 21, Villa held to 0-0, and Everton drew 2-2 with 65.2 per cent possession (Hull had 34.8) and 15 shots to nine. Away from home they have taken four points from four games, scoring four and conceding five from 47 shots to 53 and 3.86 expected goals to 5.0. On Saturday they lost 1-0 at Fulham with five shots to 18, none on target to six, 23.5 per cent possession and an 8-54 deficit in box touches. With the asterisk (*): sixth in last season's Championship on 73 points, 38 of them at home, and 398 shots faced against 249 taken on the road.

Brentford are sixth with 10 points from two wins, four draws and one defeat, the defeat being Saturday's 2-1 at home to Liverpool in a match where two of their players were sent off, on 10 shots to 21, two on target to five and 0.88 expected goals to 1.64. Across the season they have 105 shots taken against 108 faced, 29 on target against 35, and 11.73 expected goals to 10.23, plus 1.5, eighth. The 13 goals scored are 1.27 over the chances and the eight conceded 2.23 under. In four home games they have won two, drawn one and lost one, with eight goals for and three against on 61 shots to 56 and 8.61 expected goals to 4.77. Away this season they have drawn all three: 1-1 at Leeds (22 shots, 12 against) and 2-2 at Bournemouth and Villa (eight shots to 20 and 14 to 20), five goals each way from 44 shots to 52, 11 shots on target to 19 and expected goals of 3.12 to 5.46. In 2025-26 they were ninth on 53 points, 32 at home and 21 away, with six wins, three draws and ten defeats on the road.

Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, three wins among their seven games, though the home record is the part that does not fit. A home win has eluded them in three attempts this season: they drew 2-2 with Forest, had a goalless draw with Fulham and lost 3-0 to City, scoring two and conceding five on shots of 40 to 37, shots on target of 13 to 11 and expected goals of 3.97 to 4.27. Liverpool had a player sent off against City, with 13 shots to 15, 35.4 per cent possession, a 16-33 deficit in box touches and 0.94 expected goals to 1.29. On their travels they have three wins and a draw, seven goals to three, from 70 shots to 46 and 6.95 expected goals to 4.0: 2-2 at Newcastle, 2-0 at Ipswich, 1-0 at Bournemouth and, on Saturday, 2-1 at Brentford with 21 shots to 10 and 60 per cent possession, in a game where Brentford had two players sent off. On the season they have taken 110 shots (fourth-most), faced 83 and put 35 on target; the expected goals, 10.92 to 8.27, make plus 2.65, sixth, and their nine goals are 1.92 under the chances. In 2025-26 they were fifth on 60 points, 36 at home and 24 away, and each meeting with Brighton went to the home side: Liverpool won 2-0 on 18 shots to 14, and Brighton won 2-1 on 16 shots to 12.

Brighton have scored 23 goals, more than anyone, and conceded five, level with Arsenal for the fewest, which puts their goal difference at plus 18, six clear of City's in second. They are third with 16 points, five wins, a draw and a defeat. The chances are less extreme: 14.89 expected goals for (second to City's) and 10.17 against make plus 4.72, third in the league. The 23 goals are 8.11 over the chances, the biggest surplus in the division, and the five conceded 5.17 under, the biggest cushion. They have taken 125 shots, second to United's 138, faced 75, and put 42 on target, the most, against 23. At home they have three wins and a draw, 13 goals to one, from 75 shots to 32, 25 shots on target to eight and 9.28 expected goals to 5.18: Villa lost 4-0 and were 4-0 down at half-time, while Sunday's 5-0 over Palace was 17 shots to five, nine on target to one and 3-0 at the break. Away it is two wins and a defeat, 10 goals to four, from 50 shots to 43, with a 2-0 win at Sunderland in a match where Brighton had a player sent off, a 5-0 win at Coventry, and a 4-3 loss at Chelsea. Last season they were eighth on 53 points, 33 at home and 20 away.

United have taken 138 shots in seven games, 13 more than any other side, and faced 77, so their plus 61 on shots is the largest in the league. The table has them thirteenth on seven points, four of their seven games drawn, and level between goals for and against: 10 scored, 1.4 under the chances, and 10 conceded, 0.22 over the 9.78 expected against them. Their 11.4 expected goals give plus 1.62, seventh. At home it is a win, a draw and a defeat, six goals to four, from 61 shots to 27, 18 on target to 10 and 6.36 expected goals to 4.73: Ipswich were beaten 5-2 with 33 shots to nine, City won 1-0 with United shooting 16 to six, and Tottenham drew 1-1 on 12 shots each. Away they have drawn three and lost one, scoring four and conceding six on 77 shots to 50, 17 on target to 21 and 5.04 expected goals to 5.05: they lost 2-0 at Hull despite 21 shots to eight, drew 2-2 at Everton, drew 1-1 at Fulham with 29 shots to 12 and, on Sunday, drew 1-1 at Leeds (13 shots to 12, 39.2 per cent possession). In 2025-26 they were third on 71 points, 42 at home and 29 away, and both meetings with Bournemouth were draws, 4-4 at home (25 shots to 14) and 2-2 away (14 to 16).

Bournemouth are fifteenth on six points, and have conceded 13 goals from 8.23 expected against, 4.77 above the chances against them, the largest excess of any club; the nine they have scored are 3.3 under their 12.3. The shots tell a different story: 106 taken and 67 faced (the fewest in the league), 36 on target to 26, and plus 4.07 on expected-goal difference, fourth, against minus four on the scoreboard. Sunday's 2-0 over Sunderland was the extreme, 29 shots to three, six on target to none, 4.23 expected goals to 0.07 and a 56-14 lead in box touches, in a match where Sunderland had a player sent off. At home it is a win, two draws and a defeat, five goals to four, 75 shots to 36, 23 on target against 12, expected goals 8.92 to 4.06. Away, it is one draw and two defeats, four for and nine against, from 31 shots each, 13 shots on target to 14 and 3.38 expected goals to 4.17: a 2-1 loss at City on five shots to 13, 2-2 at Newcastle and a 5-1 loss at Chelsea on nine shots to 10, 1.38 expected goals to 1.1. Last season they were sixth on 57 points with 18 draws, and 26 of the points came away from home, from six wins, eight draws and five defeats.

Sunderland are bottom on four points, with five defeats in seven, and the shots are not the whole explanation: they have had more shots than the opposition in five of seven games, by one or two each time, and won one of them. The two they lost on shots were 12 to 13 against Brighton and 3 to 29 at Bournemouth, which is why the totals read 81 taken and 102 faced, with 28 shots on target and 26 faced. Six goals from 28 on target, set against 14 conceded from 26 faced, is the arithmetic behind the position, while expected goals stand at 10.55 for and 14.29 against: the six goals are 4.55 short, second only to Forest's. Home: one win, two defeats, a single goal scored, four conceded, on 36 shots to 35, 10 on target to nine and 4.54 expected goals to 4.24: a 1-0 win over Fulham, and 2-0 defeats by Arsenal and Brighton. Away, one draw and three defeats, five scored and 10 conceded on 45 shots to 67, with a 5-3 loss at City on 17 shots to 16 (expected goals 3.57 to 2.82), then a 2-0 loss at Bournemouth on Sunday in which they had a player sent off. In 2025-26 they were seventh on 54 points, 33 at home and 21 away, and in two meetings with Leeds drew 1-1 at home despite eight shots to 17, then won 1-0 away despite three to 18.

Leeds are seventh with 10 points from two wins, four draws and one defeat, and the defence has had more help than the chances give: six conceded against 9.58 expected, 3.58 fewer, the second-biggest cushion anywhere, behind Brighton's 5.17. Expected goals are level, 9.65 to 9.58, with 84 shots taken and 99 faced, 28 on target to 30, and nine goals scored, 0.65 under the chances. Four of the seven matches were draws, 1-1 with Brentford, 1-1 at Brighton, 0-0 with Palace and Sunday's 1-1 with United. They have not lost at home this season, where a win and three draws bring six goals to three, 52 shots to 54, 15 on target to 17 and 6.06 expected goals to 4.39, the win being 4-1 over Newcastle. Away they won at Forest, drew at Brighton on 10 shots to 20 and lost 2-1 at Arsenal on 11 shots to 13 and expected goals of 0.62 to 2.33, which makes three goals each from 32 shots to 45, 13 on target each and 3.59 expected goals to 5.19. In 2025-26 they were fourteenth on 47 points, 32 at home and 15 away, with two wins, nine draws and eight defeats on the road.