The Stat Man's Premier League Matchweek Seven

Everton are the unbeaten side the table barely mentions: two wins, four draws, ten points, fifth. They have taken 95, joint-fourth in the division, put 30 on target and faced 78, and the expected goals read nine for and 8.26 against. The eight goals scored are one short of the chances; the five conceded are 3.26 fewer than the chances against them were worth, the third-largest cushion in the league, and that is the figure most likely to give. At home they have won twice and drawn once, 55 shots to 38 and five goals to two. Last Sunday's draw at Hull was a game in which they had 15 shots to nine and 65.2 per cent of the ball and still came away with two goals to two. All three away games have been drawn, 1-1 at Bournemouth, 0-0 at Tottenham and 2-2 at Hull, so three of the four draws are on the road. Last season's thirteenth place and 49 points came with a home record worse than the away one, 23 points from 19 games against 26, and this season's two wins and a draw at home are the reverse of that. Chelsea beat them 2-0 in December, and Everton won the return 3-0 in March on ten shots to 12, nine of them on target to four: fewer shots, and the side that tested the goalkeeper.

Chelsea have scored 15 goals from 7.87 expected goals, a surplus of 7.13, the largest in the division, with Brighton next on 5.11. Five of the 15 arrived in one afternoon, the 5-1 over Bournemouth, from ten shots and 1.10 expected goals. The other half of the ledger runs the other way: 13 conceded, level with Bournemouth and Newcastle for the most, from 36 shots on target faced, which is more than anyone, and 10.21 expected goals against, so a goal difference of plus two sits beside an expected-goal difference of minus 2.34. Three wins, a draw and two defeats make ten points and sixth place. Away from home it is plainer: one win and two defeats, four goals scored and seven conceded, 13 shots on target to 21 faced, 2.94 expected goals for and 6.05 against. The defeats were 2-1 at Arsenal and 3-0 at Brentford, and the win was 3-2 at Fulham. Last season's tenth place and 52 points split into 26 at home and 26 away, seven wins, five draws and seven defeats in each half, which leaves nobody to blame the venue on. A surplus of seven goals is a direction and not a date.

Brentford are fourth and unbeaten on ten points from two wins and four draws, and the home half of that ledger is the best thing about them: three games, seven goals scored and one conceded, 51 shots to 35, 16 on target to 11 and 7.73 expected goals to 3.13. The results were 3-0 over Tottenham, 1-1 with Sunderland and 3-0 over Chelsea, and the draw was the game the shots did not like, 12 to 14. Away from home the picture flips. Three draws, 1-1 at Leeds and 2-2 at both Bournemouth and Aston Villa, came on 44 shots to 52, 11 on target to 19 and 3.12 expected goals to 5.46, which is the profile of a side that was out-shot at Bournemouth and at Villa and drew both. Across all six they have taken 95 shots and created 10.85 expected goals, third-highest, and their 12 goals are 1.15 above par while the six conceded are 2.59 below what the chances against them were worth. Last season's ninth place and 53 points were built at home, 32 points from 19 with eight wins, eight draws and three defeats, against 21 on the road. They beat Liverpool 3-2 in October on 17 shots to 18, and drew 1-1 at Liverpool in May while being out-shot 24 to 11.

Liverpool are ninth on nine points, two wins, three draws and a defeat, with seven goals scored and seven conceded, and what sits under that line is two different teams. At home they have taken two points from three, 2-2 with Forest, 0-0 with Fulham and a 3-0 defeat by Manchester City, scoring two and conceding five from 40 shots to 37 and 3.97 expected goals to 4.27: level on the chances and poor on the goals. On the road they have won twice and drawn once, five goals to two, from 49 shots to 36 and 5.31 expected goals to 3.12, with a draw at Newcastle and wins at Ipswich and Bournemouth. The City defeat came with a Liverpool red card, 35.4 per cent of the ball and 16 touches in the opposition box to 33, although the shots were 13 to 15 and the expected goals 0.94 to 1.29, a smaller defeat on the model than on the scoreboard. Across six games Liverpool have taken 89 shots, sixth in the division, and put 30 on target, joint-fifth, for seven goals from 9.28 expected, 2.28 short. Last season's fifth place and 60 points were a home production, 36 points from 19, against 24 away with 29 scored and 33 conceded, so seven points from nine on the road this season is the opposite of last season's shape.

Fulham are twentieth on two points, and over six games the shots have disagreed with that position: the process is far closer to par than the table. They have taken 85 shots and faced 94, put 27 on target and faced 29, and the expected goals are 9.55 for and 9.72 against, a difference of 0.17 against a real goal difference of minus four. Six goals from 9.55 is a shortfall of 3.55, level with Tottenham's and behind only Forest and Sunderland. At home they have lost two and drawn one on 6.11 expected goals to 5.27, five scored and seven conceded, and the 3-2 defeat by Palace is the sharpest example: 25 shots to 10 and 3.14 expected goals to 1.97. The 1-1 draw with Manchester United was the reverse, 12 shots to 29 and 20 touches in the opposition box to 43, and a point. Last Saturday they lost 2-1 at Ipswich on 13 shots to 11 and 1.81 expected goals to 1.15, so the scoreboard and the model parted company again. Away from home they have scored once in three games. Last season's eleventh place and 52 points came with the widest home-away gap in the division: 35 points from 19 at home, 11 wins, two draws and six defeats, and 17 on the road from four wins, five draws and ten defeats, an 18-point gap that nobody else reached.

Hull are eighth with nine points, two wins, three draws and a defeat, and the points sit ahead of the process; the Championship asterisk applies to last season's numbers further down. The process is 70 shots taken and 84 faced, 24 on target and 28 faced, 6.61 expected goals for and 9.06 against, an expected-goal difference of minus 2.45 beside a goal difference of plus two. The eight goals are 1.39 above par and the six conceded are 3.06 below the chances against them, the fifth-largest cushion in the division. At home they are unbeaten, one win and two draws, four goals scored and two conceded, while being out-shot 49 to 28 and out-created 5.44 to 2.91; the last of those games was the 2-2 draw with Everton on 34.8 per cent of the ball and nine shots to 15. Away they have won at Coventry, drawn at Chelsea and lost at Newcastle, on 42 shots to 35 and 3.70 expected goals to 3.62, which is the better process of their two venues. The defeat at Newcastle came on 22 shots to 12 and 36 touches in the box to 15, the most shots they have taken in any game this season. Asterisked, last season's Championship sixth place and 73 points were 38 points at home and 35 away, with 249 shots taken and 398 faced on the road.

Manchester City have won six from six, scored 16 and conceded five, and the shots say the winning is better than the dominance: 83 taken, joint-eighth in the division, 72 faced, 31 on target, fourth, and 26 faced, with 11.9 expected goals for and 8.17 against. The 16 goals are 4.10 above the chances and the five conceded 3.17 below, a side running warm at both ends. At home they have won all three, eight goals to four, from 44 shots to 34 and 7.3 expected goals to 5.57; the four conceded came in a 2-1 over Bournemouth, a 1-0 over Coventry and a 5-3 over Sunderland, and the 5-3 was a game the model gave to the visitors, 3.57 expected goals to 2.82. The away wins have been narrower than the scores. At Manchester United it was 1-0 on six shots to 16 and 1.10 expected goals to 1.00, and at Liverpool 3-0 on 1.29 to 0.94, although there City had 64.6 per cent of the ball and 33 touches in the opposition box to 16. Last season's second place and 78 points rested on 45 points from 19 at home, 14 wins, three draws and two defeats, 45 goals scored and 14 conceded, from 312 shots to 169.

Ipswich are tenth with nine points, three wins and three defeats, and the road is the problem: one win and two defeats away, five goals scored and eight conceded, 34 shots taken and 65 faced, 15 on target and 17 faced, 5.13 expected goals for and 7.41 against. The 5-2 defeat at Manchester United, on nine shots to 33 and 2.01 expected goals to 4.56, is most of it, but the 1-0 defeat at Everton was 13 shots to 21 as well, and ended with ten men. At home they have won two and lost one, four goals each way, from 35 shots to 34 and 3.71 expected goals to 3.15, beating Sunderland 2-1, losing 2-0 to Liverpool and beating Fulham 2-1 last Saturday on 11 shots to 13 and 1.15 expected goals to 1.81. Across six games they have faced 99 shots, fourth-most, and 10.56 expected goals, second-most, and the 12 goals conceded are 1.44 more than that. The asterisk applies to all of what follows: last season's Championship second place and 84 points came with 14 wins, eight draws and one defeat at home, 50 points, from 379 shots to 220, and nine wins, seven draws and seven defeats away. A side that outshot Championship opponents by that margin at home is not the side that has taken 35 shots to 34 at home here.

Newcastle are eleventh on eight points, two wins, two draws and two defeats, and the process has been out of step with the table since August: 70 shots taken and 107 faced, the second-most in the division, 24 on target and 34 faced, 7.16 expected goals for and 10.32 against, a minus 3.16 beside a goal difference of minus three. They have lost the shot count in five of six games. The sixth was Monday's 4-1 defeat at Coventry, in which they had 19 shots to nine, 67.3 per cent of the ball and 38 touches in the box to 16 and still conceded four, and it is the only game this season in which Newcastle out-shot the opposition. At home they have won once and drawn twice, six goals to five, but have been out-shot 66 to 33 and out-created 5.94 to 3.72 over the three: 2-2 with Liverpool on 13 shots to 27, 2-2 with Bournemouth on eight to 17 and 2-1 over Hull on 12 to 22. Ten goals from 7.16 expected is a surplus of 2.84, fourth in the division. Last season's twelfth place and 49 points came from a home side that won 10 of 19, 32 points and 36 goals, and an away side that won four, 17 points. Against Villa they drew 0-0 away in August, on 16 shots to three after a Villa red card, and lost 2-0 at home in January on 15 shots to 14.

Aston Villa are sixteenth with five points from one win, two draws and three defeats, and the line that matters is on target: 19 shots on target in six games is the fewest in the division, from 68 shots, third-fewest, against 30 on target faced, joint-fifth-most, and 95 shots faced, fifth-most. The expected goals read 6.79 for and 10.29 against, and the goals 6 and 11. Last Saturday's 2-2 with Brentford was the first game of the season in which Villa took more than 15 shots: 20 to 14, with seven on target to four and 2.28 expected goals to 1.06, their highest total of the six. At home they have no wins in three, a 1-0 defeat by Arsenal, a 2-1 defeat by Forest and the Brentford draw, three scored and five conceded. Away they have won once, drawn once and lost once, a 4-0 defeat at Brighton, a 0-0 draw at Hull and a 3-2 win at Tottenham, and the win came on 15 shots to 20, 36.1 per cent of the ball, 1.16 expected goals to 1.56 and one corner to 11. Last season's fourth place and 65 points rested on 38 points at home from 12 wins, two draws and five defeats and 27 away from seven wins, six draws and six defeats.

Bournemouth are eighteenth on three points from three draws and three defeats, and the table is a long way from the shots. They have taken 77 shots and faced 64, joint-fewest in the division with Arsenal, put 30 on target and faced 26, and the expected goals read 8.07 for and 8.16 against, a difference of minus 0.09 against a goal difference of minus six. They have conceded 13, level with Chelsea and Newcastle for the most, which is 4.84 more than the chances against them were worth, the widest gap in the division, and scored seven, 1.07 short. The 5-1 defeat at Chelsea last Saturday is the example: nine shots to ten, four on target to six and 1.38 expected goals to 1.10, a game the model gave to Bournemouth by 0.28 of a goal and the scoreboard gave to Chelsea by four. At home they have drawn twice and lost once, three goals to four, from 46 shots to 33, 17 on target to 12 and 4.69 expected goals to 3.99, the better half of their process. Last season's sixth place and 57 points were drawn up in draws: 13 wins, 18 draws and seven defeats, and ten of the 18 at home, where they lost twice in 19. Against Sunderland they lost 3-2 away in November after a Bournemouth red card, and drew 1-1 at home in February on 21 shots to eight.

Sunderland are seventeenth on four points, one win, one draw and four defeats, and 12 goals conceded from 20 shots on target faced is the sentence to start with: only Arsenal have faced fewer on target, and three in every five of Sunderland's have gone in. The shot ledger is close to level, 78 taken and 73 faced, with 28 on target to 20 faced, and the expected goals are 10.48 for and 10.06 against, an expected-goal difference of plus 0.42 that no other side in the bottom five can claim. Six goals from 10.48 is a shortfall of 4.48, the second-largest after Forest's. Away from home they have taken one point from three, a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich, a 1-1 draw at Brentford and a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City, scoring five and conceding eight from 42 shots to 38, 18 on target to 11 and 5.94 expected goals to 5.82. The 5-3 defeat at City was 17 shots to 16, nine on target to six, two hits of the woodwork and 3.57 expected goals to 2.82: Sunderland had the better of the model and lost by two. At home last Saturday they lost 2-0 to Brighton on 12 shots to 13 and 62.3 per cent of the ball, and across three home games they have scored once. Last season's seventh place and 54 points had an away half that was the weaker one, 21 points from five wins, six draws and eight defeats, with 17 goals scored.

Brighton have scored 18 goals, the most in the division, from 108 shots, second only to Manchester United's 125, with 33 on target, also the most, and 12.89 expected goals, the highest. The goals are 5.11 above that line, second to Chelsea's surplus. Four wins, a draw and the 4-3 defeat at Chelsea make 13 points, third, and a goal difference of plus 13. At home the ledger is cleaner than the table: two wins and a draw, eight goals to one, 58 shots to 27, 16 on target to seven and 7.28 expected goals to 4.41, with the 4-0 over Aston Villa and the 3-0 over Arsenal either side of a 1-1 draw with Leeds. The Arsenal game was a case of results ahead of chances, 1.31 expected goals to 1.63, on 17 shots to 11. Last Saturday they won 2-0 at Sunderland after a red card of their own, on 13 shots to 12 and 37.7 per cent of the ball. Away they have won twice and lost once, 10 goals to four. Last season's eighth place and 53 points were a home production, 33 points from 19 against 20 on the road, and Palace took four points from the two meetings, a 0-0 draw at Palace in November and a 1-0 win at Brighton in February, when the shots were seven each.

Crystal Palace have been out-shot in every one of their six games, which no other side can say, and have faced 108 shots, the most, and 12.8 expected goals against, also the most, and 34 on target, joint-second-most, and still have seven points from two wins, a draw and three defeats. The two wins came on the wrong side of the shot count both times: 3-2 at Fulham on 10 shots to 25 and 1.97 expected goals to 3.14, and 3-1 over Forest on 13 shots to 24, with Forest hitting the woodwork three times. The nine goals are 0.33 above the chances and the 12 conceded 0.80 below the 12.8 allowed, so the results are a fair reading of a defence that gives up shots at a rate only Newcastle, on 107, and Coventry, on 106, come near. Away from home they have won once, drawn once and lost once, a 2-0 defeat at Everton, a 3-2 win at Fulham and a 0-0 draw at Leeds, on 33 shots taken and 54 faced, 4.99 expected goals for and 5.57 against; the goalless draw at Leeds, 12 shots to 13, was the closest of the three. At home they have won one and lost two, a 4-1 defeat by Manchester City and a 3-2 defeat by Ipswich before the Forest win, with 54 shots faced and 7.23 expected goals conceded in three. Last season's fifteenth place and 45 points had a road half of seven wins and 24 points against a home half of four wins, nine draws and 21 points.

Leeds are seventh on nine points, two wins, three draws and a defeat, and the cushion in their results is the second-largest in the league: five goals conceded against 8.66 expected, 3.66 fewer than the chances, behind only Brighton's 4.40. The shot ledger is the ordinary one: 72 taken, 86 faced, 23 on target, 27 faced, 8.24 expected goals for and 8.66 against, a minus 0.42. The 2-1 defeat at Arsenal last Saturday shows how a close shot count can hide a lopsided game: 11 shots to 13, five on target to six, but 0.62 expected goals to 2.33 and 17 touches in the opposition box to 37, a game the model gave to the hosts by 1.71 goals and the scoreboard by one. Home is where they are unbeaten, one win and two draws, five goals to two, from 40 shots to 41, 10 on target to 14 and 4.65 expected goals to 3.47: 1-1 with Brentford, a 4-1 over Newcastle that was 3-0 at half-time, and 0-0 with Palace. Last season's fourteenth place and 47 points were home-made, 32 points from 19 and 15 on the road, where they won twice. Against United they drew 1-1 at home in January on 11 shots to 15, and won 2-1 away in April on 15 shots to 20, in a game that included a United red card.

Manchester United have taken 125 shots in six games, the most in the division by 17, and faced 65, a shot difference of plus 60, 19 clear of Forest's plus 41. Almost half of the 125 came in two games, the 5-2 over Ipswich on 33 shots and the 1-1 at Fulham on 29, and the result is six points, one win, three draws and two defeats, and a goal difference of nil. The expected goals are 10.48 for, joint-sixth with Sunderland, and 8.37 against, so the volume has not become quality at the rate the shot count suggests, and the nine goals are 1.48 short of the chances. Away from home they have not won in three games, a 2-0 defeat at Hull on 21 shots to eight, a 2-2 draw at Everton and a 1-1 draw at Fulham, scoring three and conceding five from 64 shots to 38, 14 on target to 16 and 4.12 expected goals to 3.64. At Fulham they had 43 touches in the opposition box to 20 and hit the woodwork twice. The last game, the 1-1 at home to Tottenham, was 12 shots each, 0.80 expected goals to 1.62 and a Tottenham red card. Last season's third place and 71 points rested on 42 points at home from 13 wins and 29 on the road from seven wins and eight draws.

Nottingham Forest have scored five goals from 10.6 expected, a shortfall of 5.60 and the largest in the division, and they have not scored at home at all: three games, a 1-0 defeat by Leeds, a 0-0 draw with Tottenham and a 1-0 defeat by Coventry, on 48 shots to 32 and 2.68 expected goals to 2.21. Across the six they have taken 106 shots, third-most, and faced 65, joint-third-fewest, put 23 on target, and the expected-goal difference of plus 3.41 is the fourth-best in the division, behind Arsenal, Manchester City and Brighton. They have won the shot count in five of six games and the expected-goals count in five of six, and have five points. The last two defeats are the clearest examples: a 1-0 defeat at home to Coventry on 24 shots to 10, 62.4 per cent of the ball and 32 touches in the box to 13, and a 3-1 defeat at Palace on 24 to 13, 43 touches to 24 and three hits of the woodwork. Away they have won once, drawn once and lost once, five goals to six, on 58 shots to 33. Last season's sixteenth place and 44 points had the weaker half at home, 20 points from 19 with four wins, and the better one away, 24 points. Arsenal drew 0-0 at Forest in January, with Forest on six shots to 15 and none on target to three, and won 3-0 at home in September.

Arsenal are second on 15 points with the best defensive ledger in the league: 64 shots faced, joint-fewest with Bournemouth, 19 on target faced, the fewest, and 4.64 expected goals against, the lowest, with only five goals actually conceded. At the other end they have scored 10 from 78 shots, 30 on target and 10.82 expected goals, fourth. They have won the expected-goals count in all six games, including the 3-0 defeat at Brighton, where it was 1.63 to 1.31 in Arsenal's favour, which makes it the one result in six that the expected goals did not follow. At home they have won three of three, seven goals to two, from 49 shots to 28, 21 on target to 11 and 6.26 expected goals to 1.21. On the road they have won twice and lost the Brighton game, three goals each way, from 29 shots to 36, nine on target to eight and 4.56 expected goals to 3.43, with a 1-0 at Villa on seven shots each and a 2-0 at Sunderland on 11 to 12. The 2-1 over Leeds last Saturday, from a goal down, was 13 shots to 11 and 2.33 expected goals to 0.62. Last season's champions took 85 points from 26 wins, 47 at home and 38 on the road, 11 wins and five draws away, and conceded 27 all season.

Tottenham are nineteenth on three points with no wins, three draws and three defeats, and three goals in six games, the fewest in the division. The shots are not that bad: 83 taken, joint-eighth, and 88 faced, 22 on target and 25 faced, 6.55 expected goals for, the second-fewest, and 8.62 against, a minus 2.07. The three goals are 3.55 short of the chances, level with Fulham's. At home they have lost two and drawn one, scoring two and conceding five on 51 shots to 38, 15 on target to 11 and 3.29 expected goals to 3.02, so the home ledger is on the right side of the chances and the wrong side of the table. The 3-2 defeat by Villa is the example: 20 shots to 15, 63.9 per cent of the ball, 31 touches in the box to 19 and 11 corners to one, and a loss. The 1-1 at Manchester United came with a Tottenham red card, 12 shots each and 1.62 expected goals to 0.80 in Tottenham's favour. Last season's seventeenth place and 41 points were built on the road, 26 points to 15 at home, the third-lowest home points total in the division, above only Burnley and Wolves; Tottenham won three of their 19 home games.

Coventry are fourteenth on six points from two wins and four defeats, promoted as Championship champions, and the Premier League ledger makes a hard read: 60 shots taken, the fewest in the division, and 106 faced, third-most, 22 on target and 28 faced, 6.29 expected goals for, the fewest, and 10.47 against, the third-most. They have lost the shot count in five of six and the expected-goals count in five of six. Both wins came on the wrong side: 1-0 at Forest on 10 shots to 24 and 0.67 expected goals to 1.10, and a 4-1 over Newcastle on nine shots to 19 and 1.43 to 1.84, four goals from six on target. Away from home they have won once and lost twice, one goal scored and four conceded, from 26 shots to 59, seven on target to 13 and 2.24 expected goals to 5.10, which is the heavier shot deficit on the road, against Tottenham's 32 to 50 away. At home they have won one and lost two, four goals scored and seven conceded, including a 5-0 defeat by Brighton with a Coventry red card. The asterisk, applied in full, is that last season's Championship title took 95 points from 28 wins, 97 goals scored and 45 conceded, 11 wins and 40 points away from home with 337 shots to 310: a side that out-shot second-tier opponents on the road, now out-shot 59 to 26 away from home in the Premier League.